Economic growth in focus this week in Hungary

November 13, 2017, 9:31 am  english version Hungarian version  
Sentiment this week is clearly to be determined by third-quarter GDP data, but, of course, all eyes in Hungary will be on the local growth figure. The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) will also deliver a few interesting figures, and some smaller-weight data are in the pipeline elsewhere in Europe and the Untied States.

On Monday, a few smaller-weight data will be released by the Central Statistical Office (KSH): revised figures for the industry and construction output data for September. These will clear the path for Q3 GDP data, for these will be about the last month of the third quarter.

On Tuesday, we’ll have the most important data of the week, when the Central Statistical Office (KSH) will release at 9 A.M. the latest economic growth figures for the third quarter of 2017. In Q2, output expanded by 3.2% year on year, and analysts believe growth picked up from there. The cabinet continues to project 4.0% annual average GDP growth for this year, but analysts are less upbeat, forecasting growth to be between 3.5% and .4.0% both in Q3 and in the whole of 2017.

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, will also deliver GDP data on Tuesday morning, i.e. only after a few hours after the KSH release we will learn how Hungary fared in EU comparison. Also early on Tuesday, key data for China are coming out and we should also keep an eye on Germany’s ZEW index. The other key release for the day is to be made by the central bank that will publish its latest statistical balance sheet in the morning. It will be of importance because the balance of the government’s ready cash (KESZ) has deteriorated significantly over the last few months due to the pre-financing of EU projects, which is one of the reasons the Government Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) has been offering and allotting larger amounts of government securities at its auctions lately. We will see now if the stock of the government’s ready cash started to build back up in October or not.

On Wednesday at dawn (Hungarian time), Japan is to release Q3 GDP data, and we might want to watch European foreign trade figures too in the first half of the day. In the afternoon, some stats are in the pipeline overseas, such as retail sales and inflation.

On Thursday, the ÁKK can keep on raising funds with an auction of 12-month discount Treasury Bills. Elsewhere we should be watching more closely EU inflation data and industrial production figures in the United States.

On Friday, preliminary financial accounts statistics for the third quarter are due to be published by the central bank. The key data here could be about Hungary’s public debt, although major revisions are due later on. This release, for instance, uses only estimates for GDP. Yet, it could be interesting, especially as it may give us an idea about the end-year government debt figure.

Front page photo by Attila Kisbenedek /AFP

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