IMF to publish review of the Hungarian economy this week

October 8, 2018, 8:46 am  english version Hungarian version  
No significant event or data release is in the pipeline for this week abroad, while Hungary has the latest inflation and budget figures to wait for, and the IMF will have its latest World Economic Outlook out, in which it will evaluate the Hungarian economy as well.

The first set of data we should keep an eye on this week in Hungary is the budget report for September by the Finance Ministry on Monday morning. As we approach the end of the year. These figures are becoming increasingly important, given that the shortfall was well over the end-year target, so it is quite a pressing issue when the much-awaited EU transfers will finally arrive. Elsewhere in the world, we’ll have only Germany’s industrial production data to watch, while U.S. markets will not even be open due to Columbus Day.

On Tuesday morning, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) is set to release foreign trade balance data for August, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is to publish its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) at dawn Hungarian time. The document will be introduced before the Fund’s annual general meeting in Indonesia this time. The IMF has updated its estimates also for Hungary, so the WEO has importance also for Hungary. Tuesday morning will be busy, as the stats office is also going to release the latest inflation data for September that could have an impact on the forint’s exchange rate, as the central bank (MNB) projects that after a temporary acceleration CPI will be back under its medium-term target.

On Wednesday morning, the MNB will publish its regular security statistics, including the breakdown of ownership. As per usual, information about the stock of government securities and shares held by households should be exciting.

On Thursday, the central bank will deliver its preliminary statistical balance sheet data, including the government’s ready cash (kesz) balance, i.e. the cabinet’s liquid reserves that might have inflated due to the Eurobond issuance and potential EU fund transfers from Brussels. There’s also a bond auction on Thursday that could be interesting in view of the latest global yield rises, plus there’s a CPI data to watch in the USA in the afternoon.

On Friday, we’ll have some time to breath, as markets are unlikely to be upset either by the revised industrial production data in Hungary or Germany’s inflation figures.

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