First half of the week holds big things in store
The "super week" behind us was clearly dominated by central banks, where prudent caution was the watchword. While the Fed's earlier cut was still having an impact overseas, the policy of "wait and see" prevailed on the old continent:
on Tuesday, the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) and on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) left their key rates unchanged.
In the case of the ECB, the message from policymakers was clear: although inflationary pressures are easing, maintaining stability in a volatile market environment now takes precedence over further monetary easing. In the case of the MNB, the tone of communication softened somewhat compared to the previous meeting.
In the middle of the week, however, attention shifted from the macroeconomy to the corporate sector, and within that, to technology, in the form of a sobering slap in the face. On Wednesday, news broke that Blue Owl Capital had backed out of financing Oracle's planned $10 billion AI infrastructure project. This crisis of confidence triggered a domino effect: investors suddenly began to price in costs and financing rather than endless growth, dragging down Broadcom (AVGO) and the broader technology sector with it, reinforcing concerns about the "AI bubble."
The global picture was further clouded by the prolonged weakness of the Chinese economy. Industrial and investment data released at the beginning of the week were disappointing once again, confirming that the world's second-largest economy is still far from a dynamic recovery. Overall, we have had a mixed, "sobering" week: while OTP's historic record high kept investors' spirits high at home, on the international stage, uncertainty in the technology sector and central bank tightening reminded markets that a year-end rally is not guaranteed.
The forint weakened against the euro over last week, but this was more likely due to earlier negative news and the illiquid market at the end of the year.
Holiday mode, but the beginning of the week will still be busy
The markets are already preparing for Christmas and the end-of-year break, but the macro calendar still has some surprises in store. The trading week will be shorter and liquidity is expected to be lower, which may amplify market reactions to individual data releases. The first half of the week will be busy before the holiday lull sets in on Wednesday.
On Monday, the world will be watching China: the Asian giant's interest rate decision will be announced at dawn. Investors are watching to see whether Beijing will ease monetary conditions in order to stimulate economic growth. In the afternoon, the Chicago Fed's economic sentiment index will be released in the United States, providing a comprehensive picture of overseas growth dynamics and setting the tone for trading at the beginning of the week.
Tuesday will be a real "super day" for statistical offices, as they are bringing forward their most important announcements due to the holidays. Here in Hungary, the focus will be on the MNB's balance of payments report (Q3) in the morning. This is crucial for the forint, as the development of the external balance fundamentally determines the vulnerability of the domestic currency. In Europe, German export-import prices and Spanish GDP data will provide a status report on the state of the old continent. In the second half of the day, at 2:30 p.m., America will once again take the lead with a strong set of data: durable goods orders, which are the best predictor of corporate investment (Capex), will be released. At the same time, the CB consumer confidence index will show the mood of American households as they head into the holidays – strong data could further reinforce the "soft landing" narrative.
| Macroeconomic calendar 22-28 December 2025 | ||||||
| Hungarian macroeconomy | ||||||
| December | 22 | Monday | 11:00 | NGM | General government balance | Dec |
| December | 23 | Tuesday | 8:30 | MNB | Balance of payments | Q3 |
| International macroeconomy | ||||||
| December | 22 | Monday | 2:15 | China | Rate decision | Dec |
| December | 22 | Monday | 14:30 | USA | Chicago Fed economic sentiment index | Dec |
| December | 23 | Tuesday | 8:00 | Germany | Export, import prices | Nov |
| December | 23 | Tuesday | 9:00 | Spain | GDP (2nd est.) | Q3 |
| December | 23 | Tuesday | 14:30 | USA | Durable consumer goods | Oct |
| December | 23 | Tuesday | 15:15 | USA | Industrial production | Oct |
| December | 23 | Tuesday | 16:00 | USA | CB Consumer confidence index | Dec |
| December | 24 | Wednesday | 0:50 | Japan | Rate decision minutes | Dec |
| December | 24 | Wednesday | 14:30 | USA | Jobless claims | Dec |
| December | 26 | Friday | 0:50 | Japan | Industrial production, retail turnover | Nov |
| December | 27 | Saturday | 2:30 | China | Industrial profit | Nov |
| Source: Portfolio research | ||||||
On Wednesday, Christmas Eve, most stock exchanges are closed or operating with reduced hours, but the macroeconomic machine does not come to a complete standstill. At dawn, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest meeting could move the yen exchange rate, providing insight into the future of the island nation's ultra-loose monetary policy. In the afternoon, the number of weekly jobless claims will be released in the US, which will be the last significant labor market impulse of the year.
In the second half of the week, Western markets will be closed for the Christmas holidays, but Asia will continue trading. On Friday and Saturday, industrial and retail data will be released from Japan, while China will close the week with the publication of industrial profits, which may already influence the mood in Far Eastern markets at the start of 2026.
Cover photo (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images
