Retail sales in Hungary froze as the end of the year approached
Last November, store sales rose by only 0.1% month-on-month, according to seasonally and calendar-adjusted data. This near-stagnant figure confirms the trend of recent months, showing that retail sales are growing, albeit very modestly.
This zigzag growth is also evident in the fixed-base data series, with sales in November exceeding 2021 levels by 3.3%.
Where is the impact of government transfers?
The effects of additional government transfers are not yet evident in retail sales, with modest growth seen in the final months of the year. December's data is not yet available, of course, but the fourth quarter currently shows annual growth of around 2%, which is only marginally better than stagnation on a quarterly basis.
Based on this, it is clear that consumer spending is not picking up. This means that a spectacular upturn in GDP growth is not expected by the end of the year.
However, two things should be noted: firstly, the driving force behind consumer spending has been services and online purchases, rather than retail sales, for several years now. These are more difficult to monitor. Secondly, the latest GDP report provides such a confusing picture of the Hungarian economy that any conclusions must be treated with caution.
Retail sales increased by 2.5% year-on-year in November, which is below the 11-month average of 2.8%.
- Turnover volume rose by 2.6% in both specialised and non-specialised food retailing. The volume of sales increased by 4.4% in non-specialised food and beverages shops accounting for 77% of food retailing and fell by 3.4% in specialised food, beverage and tobacco stores.
- The turnover of non-food retailing increased by a total of 4.6% in volume terms.
- The volume of mail order and internet retailing, which accounts for 11% of all retail sales and involves a wide range of goods, grew by 12%.
- The volume of sales in automotive fuel stations increased by 0.7%.
Cover image (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images
