New GDP data in the pipeline - Will it show that Hungary left stagnation behind?

According to the consensus of Portfolio's analyst survey, the Hungarian economy is expected to have grown by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. This reflects the general assessment well:

the Hungarian economy continues on its zigzagging path, with stagnation now being followed by modest growth.

If the economists' projections regarding tomorrow's data are correct, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) will have reported positive growth for the fifth time in the last 14 quarters.

The overall picture of the Hungarian economy hardly changed in the fourth quarter, said Zsolt Becsey. According to the chief analyst at UniCredit, private consumption was once again the driving force behind growth, with distributors of services and technical goods benefiting most on the production side. However, the contribution to growth from product consumption may have been more modest due to high import demand. As there were no signs of a recovery in external demand, manufacturing exports remained weak. Based on orders and machinery investment trends, however, investment performance may have improved somewhat compared to the third quarter.

Forecasters have a difficult task, as the stats office now publishes its GDP estimates 30 days after the end of the period. This means that analysts must make their forecasts based on far fewer monthly data. Péter Virovácz, senior analyst at ING Bank, also highlights this issue: the available data on economic performance in the fourth quarter so far paints a rather mixed picture. This makes the lack of sectoral data for December, such as retail or industrial performance, even more problematic.

A relatively good October was followed by a weak November.

Virovácz suggests that December may have been a better month, which will ultimately have a positive impact on the overall picture. He notes that his forecast of 0.7% quarterly growth would be considered quite dynamic in light of recent years.

Although the ING economist expects an improvement in industry in December, Zoltán Árokszállási emphasises that external demand constraints continue to have a significant negative impact on the economy. Therefore, the MBH Bank expert continues to highlight household consumption as a factor driving GDP growth. However, low investment levels may remain a limiting factor. Due to caution in the corporate sector and only partial inflow of EU funds, investments have not yet been able to bring about a significant positive turnaround in the fourth quarter.

Gábor Regős, an analyst at Gránit Fund Management, highlights this uncertainty in his assessment. Looking at the data for October and November, he says it seems as if we are not talking about the same economy in the same quarter. This is evident in the construction industry, for example, where the sector's performance grew by 9.7% year-on-year in October, but declined by 5.6% in November.

Industrial production, which also fluctuated (comparing the October-November average with the third quarter average), fell by 0.5%, while retail sales rose by 1.0%. Thus, fourth-quarter GDP could fall anywhere within a wide range. A significant positive or negative shift from the consensus is equally in the cards, which could bring volatility to the markets.

This is also reflected in the spread of quarterly GDP forecasts. While some analysts expect stagnation, others project growth of 0.8%, which would mark a dynamism we haven't seen for a long time. In other words, a significant deviation from the consensus is indeed possible. This range of forecasts is almost as wide as those for average growth throughout 2026, despite the fact that much less is known about the latter.

According to the consensus estimate, GDP growth could reach 2.3% this year. While this represents a significant acceleration compared to last year, it is worth noting that forecasts for 2026 have steadily decreased and are now far from the 3.6% projected a year ago. The Equilibrium Institute advises caution because the contribution of net exports to economic growth is expected to be marginal in the coming years due to the weak European economy, international trade frictions and the dynamisation of imports.

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