There could be more fatal accidents on Hungarian roads if new speed limit comes into effect

According to the draft regulation developed by the Ministry, road operators could decide to increase the maximum speed limit on motorways from 130 km/h to 140 km/h. The motorway speed limit would also increase from 110 to 120 km/h. Poland and Bulgaria currently have a speed limit of 140 km/h on their motorways, and certain sections of motorway in Germany still have no speed limit.

A notable aspect of Hungarian regulations is the significant tolerance applied by fixed speed cameras: authorities apply a tolerance of 15 km/h for speeds below 100 km/h, and 20 km/h for speeds above 100 km/h. In practice, this means that fixed speed cameras on motorways do not issue fines for speeds up to 150 km/h. However, this tolerance limit does not apply to on-site police checks.

While the modernisation of domestic transport legislation is timely, the current draft does not meaningfully address transport safety. According to Article G7, it lacks comprehensive mapping of problems, specific objectives and improvements to domestic accident data.

While Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland have set a target to halve the number of fatal accidents by 2030,

Hungary currently has no national road safety strategy.

The 'Vision Zero' programme, which aims to eliminate all fatal road accidents in the long term and is also promoted by the EU, does not appear in any government document.

According to the OECD database, Hungary ranks 20th out of 39 countries in terms of road accidents per 100,000 people, which is broadly consistent with figures for other Visegrad countries. However, data based on population ratios can be misleading as there are significant differences between countries in terms of vehicle numbers and traffic intensity. When we compare statistics relating to distance travelled, the situation in Hungary appears much worse:

based on a three-year average, there are 10.9 fatal accidents per billion kilometres driven in Hungary.

Romania (with 25.8 fatal accidents per billion kilometres), Lithuania and Croatia (both with 11.3 fatal accidents per billion kilometres) are the only countries in the European Union with worse figures.

For comparison, the Czech Republic has 15% fewer fatal accidents per unit of road length, Poland has 27% fewer, and Austria has about two-thirds fewer than Hungary. Norway records only one-fifth of Hungary's figure.

International research has clearly demonstrated a correlation between speed and the severity of accidents. According to the Nilsson model, a 1% increase in average speed leads to a 4% increase in fatal accidents. A European Union study indicates an even more dramatic correlation: based on their calculations,

an increase in speed of 10 km/h can double the number of fatalities.

According to data from 2024, there were 51 fatalities on Hungarian motorways and expressways. If a speed limit of 140 km/h were to be introduced, the Nilsson model predicts approximately 28 additional fatal accidents. However, according to the scenarios used in EU studies, the number of fatalities could rise to over a hundred if the higher speed limit were to become widespread and if the actual average speed were to increase significantly.

János Lázár justified the need for the speed limit to be increased to 140 km/h by saying that, in his opinion, the current limit of 130 km/h "does not keep pace" with practice, as the average speed on motorways is typically 140–150 km/h. (In 2011, he had to relinqhish his rental Audi S8 when it turned out he used a laser blocker (speed camera detector) on the car and a minor scandal ensued.)

Although only around 5% of all road accidents in Hungary occur on motorways and expressways, they account for around 11% of fatalities. Despite the better quality of the roads, accidents on this network are particularly serious due to the high speeds involved.

The exact impact of increasing the speed limit depends on the proportion of the motorway network that will have the 140 km/h limit, and the resulting average speed increase. However, based on international experience,

it is highly likely that a higher speed limit would result in more fatal accidents.

An estimated 290 of the 438 people who died in road accidents in 2023 could have survived if Hungarian road safety standards had been equivalent to those in Austria. If Hungary achieved Austrian levels of road safety over a ten-year period, nearly 3,000 lives could be saved.

Overall, the number of road accidents resulting in fatality dropped considerably both in Budapest (-62.4%) and in Hungary (-64.7%) between 2002 and 2024. (Data for 2025 will be available in mid-May.)

The number of road accidents resulting in serious injury dropped less than that, but it's still rather impressive at -27.2% in Budapest and -40.7% in Hungary between 2002 and 2024.

As regards the share of fatalities in road accidents resulting in injury, we see a decline both in Budapest and nationwide, while the share of serious injuries edged up slightly in Budapest, while it dropped in Hungary as a whole. The upper graphs show long-term curves, while those below plot three years with a ten-year gap to emphasise the changes.

Regarding the proportion of fatalities resulting from road accidents, we observe a decline in both Budapest and the rest of Hungary. However, the share of serious injuries increased slightly in Budapest, while it decreased in Hungary as a whole. The line charts show long-term trends, while the column graphs plot data from three years, with a ten-year gap, to emphasise changes over time.

Cover image (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images