2026 kicks the door open – Data will come in that could determine the fate of our investments

In many ways, 2025 will be a memorable year in retrospect. On the stock market, for example, Central and Eastern European stocks had an exceptionally good year, despite the fact that the war in Ukraine has been going on for four years now. The BUX index, for example, shot up by almost 40% last year, while the Polish WIG-20 index even managed to outperform the Hungarian market. Developed markets also had little to complain about, with the US Nasdaq index, for example, rising by more than 20% in a year.

baha us tech 100

Source: Portfolio-Teletrader Kft.

According to analysts,

regional stocks could get another boost if at least a ceasefire can be agreed in Ukraine.

US President Donald Trump has been working on this for months, and there have been several glimmers of hope, but so far it has not been possible to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table.

We also had an extraordinary year on the foreign exchange market, with the forint performing better against the dollar than it has done in more than twenty years. High interest rates have pushed the Hungarian currency to unprecedented heights, but with parliamentary elections approaching, questions are mounting and uncertainty is growing,

raising the question of how long this favorable trend will last in 2026.

USD/HUF

Source: Portfolio-Teletrader Kft.

At the beginning of the year, many people traditionally review their investments and may make changes. This year, however, they will not have much time for this, as the economy will be in full swing right from the first week.

In Hungary, all eyes will be on Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's traditional international press conference on Monday, where the head of government is expected to answer questions from domestic and international journalists for several hours. The topics will certainly include economic issues, so any comments on the budget situation or the general economic outlook are likely to attract particular attention. In the second half of the day, the ISM purchasing managers' index will be released in the US, supplementing last week's manufacturing business cycle indicator with figures for the service sector.

On Tuesday morning, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) will publish the government sector's balance for the third quarter of last year and the latest foreign trade data, while the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) will publish its report on the balance sheets of credit institutions at the end of November. Meanwhile, preliminary December inflation data will be released in Europe, with particular attention likely to be paid to the French and German figures.

On Wednesday morning, the KSH will publish November employment and unemployment data, while the central bank will release statistics on the ownership structure of securities. However, more important than this may be the eurozone's December inflation data and the US economic reports due later in the day.

In the second half of the week, probably on Thursday, the Ministry of National Economy (NGM) will publish preliminary December data on public finances, which may attract significant investor attention. According to the government's latest plans, the GDP-proportionate budget deficit for 2025 and 2026 could also be 5%, but this required a significant deficit at the end of last year. German manufacturing orders and US labor market data could also cause more intense movements in the markets.

There will still be data available on the last working day of the week, as preliminary year-end data on the MNB's international reserves will be published on Friday morning, alongside November's retail statistics. In Germany, industrial production figures are worth mentioning, as are the latest labor market statistics in the US.

Cover photo (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images