Hungary's Q1 economic performance to be unveiled this week

May 14, 2018, 9:27 am  english version Hungarian version  
The following days offer a lot more excitement than the last few weeks did, and the release calendar will be undoubtedly ruled by GDP data, and in Hungary, we’ll also have the latest public debt number. The situation is similar abroad, with all eyes on growth data.

The week is off to a slow start in Hungary. The central bank (MNB) is set to publish its preliminary statistical balance sheet, and the Central Statistical Office (KSH) is to release a revised industrial production data on Monday, while China will have stats out on direct capital investments in April.

On Tuesday morning, the real barrage of macro releases will be afoot. Chinese authorities will publish very early (Hungarian time) the latest data on retail sales. Starting at 8 A.M. Germany will kick off the GDP release series. Hungary’s own stats office will publish the Q1 growth figure at 9 A.M., which will show whether the economy managed to keep the pace north of 4.0%. Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, will deliver its own set of Q1 data, which will allow us to compare how Hungary fared in EU terms. The Government Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) will holds its regular weekly auction of short T-bills in the morning, while markets will be watching more closely Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index and retail sales data in the United States.

We’ll have a short breather in Hungary on Wednesday, but Japan has a growth data in the pipeline for the early morning, and Eurostat will also release final inflation figures for April.

On Thursday morning, we’ll have the other key release for the week, this time preliminary financial accounts data by the MNB, which will also contain the end-Q1 debt-to-GDP ratio. Although this will only be an estimate (as the latest nominal GDP figure will not be included), investors will keep an eye on it nevertheless. Also, the ÁKK will auction of 12-month Treasury Bills in the morning.

On Friday, we’ll have only a minor release by the central bank, namely the end-April figure for the country’s international reserves, but it is unlikely to cause ripples on markets.

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