Winter power switch-off scenarios for internet, telephone in Hungary

What will happen to telecommunications if the power has to be switched off in winter?

Not so long ago it was unthinkable, but as a result of the energy crisis, the scenario of mobile phones going dark around Europe this winter if power cuts or energy rationing knocks out parts of the mobile networks across the region became a real risk, Reuters predicted in a recent analysis.

Across Europe, emergency plans are being drawn up by national authorities for rotating power cuts in the event of a disruption to energy supplies. The basic principle is that power would be cut off at pre-announced times on a rotational basis from region to region, with the exception of essential services such as hospitals and police. Telecoms operators fear that this will test Europe's telecoms infrastructure, as many countries do not have adequate backup systems to deal with wider-scale blackouts.

In order to ensure uninterrupted services, consultations have begun at a continental level between telecoms companies and governments to ensure that telecoms infrastructure is included among protected consumers, thus avoiding potential disconnection.

In France, however, it seems that these attempts have so far been unsuccessful. Service providers are already preparing for the worst, and although the chances of having to use the rotational disconnection tool remain low, the aim is to minimize the impact of not having been granted immunity. Similarly, in Italy, the leading telecommunications provider recently reported that they are far from being included in the circle of protection.

No panic in Hungary, just brainstorming

We asked major domestic telecoms companies and industry experts how vulnerable the domestic telecoms system is to power outages, what scenarios they have to ensure the uninterrupted operation of networks in such events, and what users might experience if the network does not function optimally.

According to our industry sources, telecoms providers have started to dust off their business continuity plans not only in Europe but also at home, which were originally designed for terror alerts or flood disasters. The business continuity plans focus on restoring operations at the tower station within a few hours in the event of an earthquake, terrorist attack, power outage, or any other disaster.

There is a lot of planning and thinking going on in the background, and everyone is aware of its necessity, although this is not visible from the outside, and there is no panic.

The big challenge is that, while the national critical infrastructure system has so far focused on buffering the effects of short-term events and restarting as soon as possible afterward, the energy crisis could be with us for the longer term.

Currently, the sector is investigating the possibilities, preparing not for power outages, but potentially for rotational shutdowns. In Hungary, no one is afraid that, say, an entire county will be left without electricity. The task of the Hungarian Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority now is to plan the order in which to switch off individual consumption blocks in a so-called rotating shutdown order, as a last resort, if an emergency power supply system is needed. Within this framework, there is an attempt to position the telecommunications sector so that all elements of the network get qualified as protected consumers, i.e. cannot be disconnected. Gas consumption can be disconnected individually per consumer, while electricity can only be disconnected for individual consumption blocks, such as blocks of flats or larger consumption units, without differentiation.

FOR EXAMPLE, if SOMEONE IS LUCKY ENOUGH TO LIVE NEXT TO A HOSPITAL AND THEY ARE ON THE SAME CONSUMPTION CIRCUIT, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONSUMPTION BLOCK WILL NOT BE DISCONNECTED,

the industry experts say.

At the European level, there is an ambition to avoid disconnection of telecommunications and mandatory reductions in energy consumption. Energy saving works in many branches of industry, but not in telecommunications. Telecommunications is not energy-intensive at all, it is not a manufacturing process, there is nothing to save. Energy saving in telecommunications can only be achieved by switching things off completely. The most vulnerable parts of the network are the base stations and data centres, but these parts of the large central infrastructure are already classified as national critical infrastructure at all the major national telecoms companies. Key core infrastructure elements are already protected consumers, sources close to the matter said.

In response to Portfolio's question, Magyar Telekom said that it has an up-to-date business continuity policy and an ISO-compliant business continuity management system, in line with which the company continuously monitors events and takes all necessary measures to ensure the continuity of the services provided.

There are two key elements to Magyar Telekom's efforts: trying to reduce its energy consumption, and looking for opportunities to use renewable energy sources:

• Magyar Telekom started to optimize its energy consumption in the operation and transformation of its mobile network even before the energy crisis. In recent years, it has sought to shift customers' data usage from 3G to 4G, a network with near nationwide coverage and a better consumer experience, and finally discontinued service on its redundant 3G network as of 30 June this year. Switching off the little-used 3G will definitely save energy, the company said. Magyar Telekom will also continue its mobile network modernization programme launched in 2020. The environmental significance of this is that more up-to-date mobile technologies are more efficient, and the energy needed to transmit 1 byte has been significantly reduced over the past period, as with 4G, it is only about a fifth of the energy needed for 3G. The gradual replacement of fixed copper networks by optical technologies is also leading to significant specific energy savings. In addition, the elimination of redundant and obsolete network elements is also an important element in the effort to reduce energy use.
• The company also aims to ensure that different green/renewable energy sources constitute an increasing share of consumption. In this context, Magyar Telekom intends to establish long-term partnerships with solar energy service providers, which would enable the company to meet a growing share of its needs with energy from solar energy, thus providing security against market price volatility and possible supply shortages.

How backup systems operate

Telecoms experts, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that with a rotational switch-off schedule, the expected timeframe for the current plans is roughly three hours. This is a time span that the network can handle on its own right now.

Backup generators and backup power supplies can cope with these outages of a few hours.

For how long exactly depends on the tower station, some lasting up to 24 hours, others up to 48 hours. Batteries are one of the devices that can last for at least 4 hours and up to 24 hours after recharging, but diesel generators are also used, which can keep tower stations running for longer periods, up to days, in the event of a power outage.

Yettel told Portfolio that mobile networks in general require a continuous supply of power. In the wake of the global energy crisis, the company is looking more intensively than ever before at energy-saving options and the possibilities and needs of operating the network under any conditions. When the electricity grid is unavailable, batteries can be used for shorter time periods and on-site generators for longer ones.  

If the outage affects a smaller area - and there is no way to replenish power once the battery capacity of the site is exhausted - then the surrounding base stations in the overlapping areas of coverage can partially carry the traffic of the affected area.

With batteries, the power supply to the stations can be guaranteed for shorter time periods, while the generators will run as long as the fuel supply is guaranteed, Yettel confirmed.

Magyar Telekom adds that telecommunications networks are highly exposed in terms of energy supply. In the event of local/periodic power cuts, the operator will provide an alternative power supply to ensure the operation of services, and in the event of more frequent and/or more extensive power cuts, it will be tasked with providing the fuel needed to run the aggregators.

Magyar Telekom will manage power outages as follows:

• Magyar Telekom's service and network operation centre maintains regular contact with the energy service providers in the area. Through this contact, it obtains information on planned power outages, so that it can prepare for them by providing alternative energy sources. The availability of a stable power supply is of paramount importance for the provision of services, so Magyar Telekom continuously monitors the power supply at all telecommunications sites and takes the necessary steps to ensure uninterrupted services in the event of a power failure. The design of the network is divided into several planes according to their function, with different uninterruptible power supply solutions.

• Magyar Telekom has multiple power supplies at sites with central functions, which cover the whole network or a significant part of it. The solutions used enable the operator to deal with local power supply problems without the need to procure other bridging power sources. In the event of a complete power outage at an important site, it is possible to provide power from batteries via inverters until the installed generators kick in and ramp up to the level required to serve the power demand. Depending on the internal and external sources, the aggregators can be sized to run for approximately 6 to 24 hours on the fuel stored in their own tanks, during which time replenishment must be provided. This will be ensured through a contracted supplier. Telekom also has a central reserve of fuel in case of supply problems.

• The sites providing fixed and mobile access to subscribers (e.g. base stations) typically have battery backup. These sites provide a maximum of a few thousand customer connections due to the fragmented design of the network. In the vast majority of these sites, mobile generators can be used to ensure uninterrupted service provision if necessary. (It should also be noted that if there is a prolonged power cut in an area, the charging of mobile phones may also become problematic, so situations may arise where service availability is provided but some customers may not be able to use the service due to discharged batteries in their handsets.)

What will consumers be exposed to? Will we always be able to make a phone call?

What people experience in the event of a power cut depends on what goes out. The biggest problem would be if the central infrastructure went down, in which case a few counties could theoretically lose connections, industry sources said.

THE STABILITY OF THE TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE IS PRECISELY DUE TO ITS DECENTRALIZED NATURE, WITH OPERATORS ALSO USING EACH OTHER'S TOWER STATIONS. IF ONE OPERATOR WERE TO LOSE ONE OF ITS TOWERS, THE OTHERS WOULD TAKE IT OVER IN ROAMING.

There can be a loss of user bandwidth experience, but no blackout is needed for that, because there is a basic design level for these towers, and their operations can also collapse if suddenly a lot more people show up on them (like recently at the Margaret Bridge during the protest).

The download data generates high consumption, as during the pandemic, there were instances of Netflix being asked to lower the resolution quality. If gas supplies were suddenly cut off, it would ripple through the electricity system in a matter of days. In that case, there would have to be a rapid tightening of belts, but then the greater pressure would not be on telecoms, but on content providers to cut back. If anything, this would curb electricity consumption.

The chance of a situation like in the movies where an entire county is plunged into darkness and none of the services work is practically zero.

A COMPLETE BLACKOUT IS UNIMAGINABLE IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS, AS IT WOULD TAKE AN INCREDIBLY HYPER-TARGETED ATTACK WITH MILITARY HARDWARE TO ACHIEVE THAT. IT IS THIS DECENTRALIZED NATURE THAT MAKES THE SYSTEM SO STABLE,

said telecoms experts who asked not to be named.

According to Magyar Telekom, in the event of a power outage, customers will clearly experience a loss of service in fixed line services, as there will be no power supply in homes, while in the case of mobile services, depending on the network design, they may experience a drop in internet speed or loss of connection. The essential aim is to keep phone voice communications "alive", however, depending on the geographical location, customers may experience unreliable or even lost voice communications services in the event of a 2G/4G network outage.

The real big challenge

However, the system is still not prepared for long-term energy supply problems, which is a regulatory issue as well. For example, if the diesel backup generators cannot be charged because the diesel has been used up. The system cannot handle multiple supply difficulties at the same time, industry experts who spoke to Portfolio on condition of anonymity said.

THE WHOLE BACKUP ENERGY SUPPLY SYSTEM WAS DESIGNED FOR POST-DISASTER SITUATIONS, NOT FOR LONGER-TERM ENERGY SUPPLY DIFFICULTIES.

But the likelihood of a power supply emergency remains low, with only the previous minimum chance slightly higher, they added.

According to Magyar Telekom, since they provide services from thousands of sites, local/periodic, planned or unplanned blackouts are a daily occurrence and are managed according to the process mentioned above.

Continuity of operations in the coming months can be guaranteed if there is no critical situation with the electricity suppliers.

In addition to the impact of blackouts on the network, it is also worth taking into account that in the event of a large-scale/delayed blackout, customers will not have power, so charging their devices may pose a problem, the Hungarian telecoms company added.

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