Hospitalisations in current respiratory infection season rises to new high in Hungary

EDITOR'S NOTE: Some functions of the National Centre for Public Health and Pharmacy (NNGYK) are currently unavailable due to maintenance work. Consequently, we have been unable to collect all the epidemiological data for the 50th week. Once this issue has been resolved, our data series will be completed and the charts that are currently missing will be updated accordingly in the following week(s).

As regards the estimated number of Hungarians seeking medical help with acute respiraotry infection, the current respiratory season started worse than in the previous years, but the ARI numbers have been lower than in the previous three years for five consecutive weeks. However, on the 50th week, there were already more ARI reports (249,700) than a year earlier (231,600).

Meanwhile, the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) is currently the second highest compared to the past three years.

The share of ILI in ARI was 15.3%, higher than in the previous three years, having risen for the fourth week in a row.

With regard to the number of ARI patients per 100,000 inhabitants, we were better off than in 2022/23 and 2023/24, but worse off than a year ago. In fact, the current one is the second highest figure since 2011/2012.

The Chief Medical Officer emphasised that the new type of influenza A virus had also been identified in Hungary. This may explain why the number of cases exceeded the epidemic threshold so early this year, in December. This level is typically only reached in January.

Based on the available data, it appears that the new virus strain does not cause more severe illness than previous strains.

While the total number of samples tested exceeds the 2022/23 figure by the 50th week, it remains below the 2023/24 and 2024/25 figures.

Hospitalisations

There were 117 people in hospital with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), up from 91 a week ago, of whom 18 tested positive for COVID-19 (17.1%), which compares with 14.8% in 2024/25 and 72.9% in 2023/24, when hospitals admitted more SARI patients on the 50th week, 142 and 339, respectively.

Fourteen of the 117 patients needed intensive of subintensive care, a ratio of 12%, largely the same as a week ago. There were 16 SARI patients in ICU on the same week a year ago (11.3%) and 46 two years ago (13.6%).

So far, this season is less serious than the previous ones when it comes to how many of all people with ARI end up in hospital.

The patterns of the previous years suggest that the ratio of coronavirus infections in hospitalisations should keep dropping and get close to 0-10% by the 5th or 6th week of next year. In parallel with this, influenza infections behind hospitalisations should start to pick up before the end of the year or early 2026. And then there's the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to consider.

This is how the pathogens 'swapped places' as the main reason behind hospitalisations last year, although there's absolutely no guarantee that we'll see the same trajectories this year.

Here is a side-by-side comparison of hospitalisations by type of infection for the current and past respiratory infection seasons. Although we have chosen not to put it on this particular chart, note that the share of coronavirus infection behind hospitalisations hovered between 65% and 74% in the first 11 weeks of the 2023/24 season.

And this is how they have been changed in the current and past three seasons of respiratory infections. (Note that the the RSV was not reported to be behind any hospitalisation until the 47th week in 2024 and the 49th week in 2023.)

Vaccination recommended but...

Orsolya Surján emphasised that it is still worthwhile getting the flu vaccine, as the cross-immunity it provides can offer protection against infection despite the new virus's altered antigen structure. While the vaccine is not expected to offer full protection against the new strain, it is likely to be effective in preventing serious illness and complications.

A few days ago, readers of various news portals pointed out that

flu vaccines had run out in several places,

a shortage which was later confirmed by the NNGYK. In response to HVG's inquiry, the authority wrote that the same quantity of vaccines was made available to the public this year as last year.

However, demand for pharmacy stocks was greater than expected, and the NNGYK reported this to manufacturers and wholesalers. "Companies will make business decisions about further deliveries. If purchases are made, the NNGYK will provide the necessary professional and regulatory assistance," the authority said in its statement.

People who are at risk due to their age or health condition can get the vaccine for free from their GP. However, those who do not belong to a risk group must purchase the vaccine themselves from a pharmacy, if it is available.

HVG spoke to several pharmacies in the capital, who said they had run out of the vaccine. It now seems that they will definitely not be receiving another batch this year. This is because the system shows that the product cannot be ordered.

The NNGYK claims that the flu vaccine is still available for people in the risk group due to their age or health condition. "This year, 100,000 more doses of the flu vaccine are available than last season," said the authority.

However, this contradicts what a family doctor told the news portal, claiming that he

ran out of free vaccines two weeks ago

and is therefore currently unable to administer the vaccine to eligible patients.

According to the CMO, the current epidemic situation does not necessitate the introduction of centralised, uniform measures. County government offices are authorised to decide on the epidemiological precautions necessary for healthcare institutions. Orsolya Surján believes that the holidays and school breaks may have a positive effect on the development of the epidemic and hopes that the wave of infection will be broken.

Note that this relief will be both temporary and deceptive. The number of infections will not actually decrease; it will only seem to do so because fewer people will seek medical help. Respiratory infection season tends to peak between the third and eighth weeks of the new year, so a drop in infections could be expected in early March at the earliest.

Cover image (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images