Economy
Researchers on Hungary’s euro zone entry - Ecostat
Target date is anchor
Ecostat head Pál Belyó said Hungary should focus on evading or minimising bigger losses in the period before euro zone entry. Setting a target date is important as it would serve as an anchor in Hungary’s future economic processes, he said.
Belyó emphasised Hungary should have a competitive exchange rate and an appropriate interest rate level upon entry into the exchange rate mechanism (ERM-2) and the European Monetary Union (EMU), as these could help offset the repeatedly mentioned disadvantages, such as currency speculations and the forint’s excessive nominal appreciation.
Belyó said it was not certain that countries would join the euro zone together, adding it was more important that the so-called Maastricht criteria could still change and so it was unnecessary to focus so intensively on meeting current requirements.
Ecostat said Hungary would meet present criteria, but underlined that the key question in the whole convergence process is when will Hungarian wages be as high as the European Union’s average.
Ecostat also believes Hungary could adopt the euro in 2009 or 2010 but, contrary to GKI, it said there were bigger differences in the relevant economic policies.
Belyó said Hungary’s real convergence (per capita GDP at purchase power parity) would take several decades, given that Hungarian wages will catch up extremely slowly with the EU average.
Belyó emphasised Hungary should have a competitive exchange rate and an appropriate interest rate level upon entry into the exchange rate mechanism (ERM-2) and the European Monetary Union (EMU), as these could help offset the repeatedly mentioned disadvantages, such as currency speculations and the forint’s excessive nominal appreciation.
Belyó said it was not certain that countries would join the euro zone together, adding it was more important that the so-called Maastricht criteria could still change and so it was unnecessary to focus so intensively on meeting current requirements.
Ecostat said Hungary would meet present criteria, but underlined that the key question in the whole convergence process is when will Hungarian wages be as high as the European Union’s average.
Ecostat also believes Hungary could adopt the euro in 2009 or 2010 but, contrary to GKI, it said there were bigger differences in the relevant economic policies.
Belyó said Hungary’s real convergence (per capita GDP at purchase power parity) would take several decades, given that Hungarian wages will catch up extremely slowly with the EU average.
