Economy
Kopint-Datorg ups personal consumption forecast for 2004
Kopint-Datorg projected 4% GDP growth for the year, unchanged from its previous forecast published in June.
The think-tank also raised its forecast for 2004 investment growth to 8.5% from 7.6%.
Kopint-Datorg said Hungary European ESA-95 public sector deficit would be 5.3%-5.6% of GDP in 2004, versus 4.9% forecast in the June report. The government's official target is for a gap of 5.0%-5.3% of GDP for 2004.
Newly elected Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány said Hungary's public sector deficit would not be larger than 4.7% of GDP in 2005 and Finance Minister Tibor Draskovics said it would be around 4.5%-4.7% of GDP. Kopint expects the gap to come to 4.6%-4.9% of GDP in 2005.
According to the researcher, annual average inflation in 2004 will come to 6.8%-7.0%, compared with its June forecast for a 6.8% CPI. Kopint's average annual inflation projection for 2005 remained unchanged at 4.6%.
Kopint-Datorg also said the central bank was likely to cut its base rate by 50-75 basis points by the end of the year. The base rate is currently 11.00%, the highest in the European Union.
The think-tank also raised its forecast for 2004 investment growth to 8.5% from 7.6%.
Kopint-Datorg said Hungary European ESA-95 public sector deficit would be 5.3%-5.6% of GDP in 2004, versus 4.9% forecast in the June report. The government's official target is for a gap of 5.0%-5.3% of GDP for 2004.
Newly elected Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány said Hungary's public sector deficit would not be larger than 4.7% of GDP in 2005 and Finance Minister Tibor Draskovics said it would be around 4.5%-4.7% of GDP. Kopint expects the gap to come to 4.6%-4.9% of GDP in 2005.
According to the researcher, annual average inflation in 2004 will come to 6.8%-7.0%, compared with its June forecast for a 6.8% CPI. Kopint's average annual inflation projection for 2005 remained unchanged at 4.6%.
Kopint-Datorg also said the central bank was likely to cut its base rate by 50-75 basis points by the end of the year. The base rate is currently 11.00%, the highest in the European Union.
