Economy
Hungary's GKI revises GDP, CPI forecasts
Economic growth in Hungary continues to be 2 percentage points above the European Union average but it is one of the slowest ones among new EU members, the GKI said in its latest forecast on Monday.
The think-tank lowered its 2004 GDP forecast to 4.0% from 4.1% in its September forecast but left it unchanged compared to its previous forecast early November. The GKI now expects industrial output to grow by 8.5% this year, compared with 8.5% in January-September and a projection for a 10% growth in the September forecast.
In its convergence programme submitted to the European Commission in May Hungary targeted 3.3%-3.5% GDP growth for 2004, but it announced that it would upgrade the plan.
The GKI sees the cash-flow based public sector deficit, excluding local governments, at HUF 1,350 billion against HUF 1,250 billion, and sees inflation easing to 6.0% by end-2004 from its September forecast of 6.5%.
The volume of retail sales will growth by 4% year on year in 2004, compared with a 6.6% annual rise in January-September, the GKI said.
Exports will increase by 14% in annual terms this year, the researcher added. Exports were up 15.1% year on year in the first nine months.
Imports will grow by 14% year on year in 2004, the GKI projected. Import growth in January-September was also 15.1% in annual terms.
The GKI forecast Hungary's current account deficit to reach EUR 6.6 billion by the end of the year, compared with HUF 3.8 billion in the first six months.
Gross average wage should by up by 8% in the full-year, nearly the same as January-September's 7.9% year-on-year rise, the GKI projected.
Hungary's rate of unemployment will come to 6.1% in 2004, the GKI said. In August-October, the jobless rate was 6.1%.
The think-tank lowered its 2004 GDP forecast to 4.0% from 4.1% in its September forecast but left it unchanged compared to its previous forecast early November. The GKI now expects industrial output to grow by 8.5% this year, compared with 8.5% in January-September and a projection for a 10% growth in the September forecast.
In its convergence programme submitted to the European Commission in May Hungary targeted 3.3%-3.5% GDP growth for 2004, but it announced that it would upgrade the plan.
The GKI sees the cash-flow based public sector deficit, excluding local governments, at HUF 1,350 billion against HUF 1,250 billion, and sees inflation easing to 6.0% by end-2004 from its September forecast of 6.5%.
The volume of retail sales will growth by 4% year on year in 2004, compared with a 6.6% annual rise in January-September, the GKI said.
Exports will increase by 14% in annual terms this year, the researcher added. Exports were up 15.1% year on year in the first nine months.
Imports will grow by 14% year on year in 2004, the GKI projected. Import growth in January-September was also 15.1% in annual terms.
The GKI forecast Hungary's current account deficit to reach EUR 6.6 billion by the end of the year, compared with HUF 3.8 billion in the first six months.
Gross average wage should by up by 8% in the full-year, nearly the same as January-September's 7.9% year-on-year rise, the GKI projected.
Hungary's rate of unemployment will come to 6.1% in 2004, the GKI said. In August-October, the jobless rate was 6.1%.
