Economy
Hungary's key macro data this week (Feb 7-11)
In the following you find a dateline of Hungary's key macroeconomic indicators scheduled for publishing this week. If the necessary data is available, we also provide estimates to go with the most important items and give concise description on the relevant economic processes.
7 February, Monday
14:00 Monetary Council meeting. Rate-setting is not on the agenda.
17:00 Public sector data, January
Deficit in January 2003: HUF 218.6 billion. The Finance Ministry said last week that VAT revenues in January exceeded the target by HUF 30 billion, but it is hard to assess how this would affect the public sector balance. The ministry forecast HUF 210 billion deficit for January, while analysts in a Reuters poll projected a HUF 220 billion gap.8 February, Tuesday
08:30 Statistical balance sheet of the National Bank of Hungary (NBH), January, preliminary
09:00 External trade, December 2004 - Central Statistics Office (KSH)
Previous: EUR 102.1 billion deficit in January-November versus first estimate for a EUR 250 billion gap.
Forecast: EUR 400 million deficit.
09:00 External trade, January-December - KSH
Hungary's trade deficit in 2003 totalled EUR 4.17 billion and was EUR 4.055 billion in January-November 2004.
Note: Hungary joined the European Union in May 2004, which brought about changes in accounting methods. This may result in major discrepancies in original and revised monthly figures.
09:00 Main indicators of hotels, January, KSH
12:00 Auction of 3-month discount treasury bills - Offered amount: HUF 25 billion.
Bids at previous auction: HUF101.5 bn; average yield at previous auction: 8.63%
9 February, Wednesday
09:00 Agricultural prices, December 2004, KSH
12:00 Auction of 6-month discount T-bills - Offered amount: HUF 25 billion.
Bids at previous auction: HUF 96.6 bn; average yield at previous auction: 8.52%
10 February, Thursday
09:00 Tourism, December 2004, KSH
12:00 Auction of 12-month instruments - Offered amount: HU F30 billion.
Bids at previous auction: HUF 64.6 bn; average yield at previous auction: 8.43%
11 February, Friday
14:00 Minutes of the Monetary Council's 24 January rate-setting meeting.
The Monetary council reduced the base rate by 50 basis points to 9.00% at its 24 January meeting, but Governor Zsigmond Járai said some members wanted only a 25-bp rate cut. He also expressed his doubts whether the dynamic pace of rate cuts in the previous months could be continued or not. The wording of the minutes can be a crutch for the market in assessing what move to expect from the bank at its next rate-setting meeting on 21 February. There are projections for a 25-bp and for a 50-bp rate reduction as well. Note that the Council will be enlarged by four new members by then.
7 February, Monday
14:00 Monetary Council meeting. Rate-setting is not on the agenda.
17:00 Public sector data, January
Deficit in January 2003: HUF 218.6 billion. The Finance Ministry said last week that VAT revenues in January exceeded the target by HUF 30 billion, but it is hard to assess how this would affect the public sector balance. The ministry forecast HUF 210 billion deficit for January, while analysts in a Reuters poll projected a HUF 220 billion gap.8 February, Tuesday
08:30 Statistical balance sheet of the National Bank of Hungary (NBH), January, preliminary
09:00 External trade, December 2004 - Central Statistics Office (KSH)
Previous: EUR 102.1 billion deficit in January-November versus first estimate for a EUR 250 billion gap.
Forecast: EUR 400 million deficit.
09:00 External trade, January-December - KSH
Hungary's trade deficit in 2003 totalled EUR 4.17 billion and was EUR 4.055 billion in January-November 2004.
Note: Hungary joined the European Union in May 2004, which brought about changes in accounting methods. This may result in major discrepancies in original and revised monthly figures.
09:00 Main indicators of hotels, January, KSH
12:00 Auction of 3-month discount treasury bills - Offered amount: HUF 25 billion.
Bids at previous auction: HUF101.5 bn; average yield at previous auction: 8.63%
9 February, Wednesday
09:00 Agricultural prices, December 2004, KSH
12:00 Auction of 6-month discount T-bills - Offered amount: HUF 25 billion.
Bids at previous auction: HUF 96.6 bn; average yield at previous auction: 8.52%
10 February, Thursday
09:00 Tourism, December 2004, KSH
12:00 Auction of 12-month instruments - Offered amount: HU F30 billion.
Bids at previous auction: HUF 64.6 bn; average yield at previous auction: 8.43%
11 February, Friday
14:00 Minutes of the Monetary Council's 24 January rate-setting meeting.
The Monetary council reduced the base rate by 50 basis points to 9.00% at its 24 January meeting, but Governor Zsigmond Járai said some members wanted only a 25-bp rate cut. He also expressed his doubts whether the dynamic pace of rate cuts in the previous months could be continued or not. The wording of the minutes can be a crutch for the market in assessing what move to expect from the bank at its next rate-setting meeting on 21 February. There are projections for a 25-bp and for a 50-bp rate reduction as well. Note that the Council will be enlarged by four new members by then.
