Economy
INSTANT VIEW - Hungary Sept trade gap EUR 116 m (2)
(Adds comment by Goldman Sachs)
Hungary's September trade deficit came in at EUR 116 m vs. EUR 170 m market consensus. Both exports and imports slowed considerably in September to 6.6% yr/yr and 6.5% yr/yr, respectively. In August both figures were still above 10% yr/yr.
The year-to-date trade deficit was EUR 1.8 bn vs. EUR 2.2 bn in 2005.Gyula Tóth, BA-CA, Vienna
“The YTD improvement of the trade balance is on the back of strong export results and partly on weak HUF in those months."
“We are not overly worried about the sharp slowdown of the dynamics as it was likely due to the working day effect (we estimate YoY working day adjusted export/import growth at 14.5/12.5% respectively in Sept from 17/12.5% in Aug, also see the wide difference between adjusted and non adjusted Sep industrial production released this week)."
“Looking ahead we continue to pencil in EUR2.2bn trade deficit for 2006. Although today's figure came on the positive side we see the market focusing on the HGB auction results and on possible comments from EU Commissioner Almunia. We remain mod U/W HUF."
István Zsoldos, Goldman Sachs, London
"Seasonality helped the trade balance this month, but export growth is slightly lower than we expected."
"Nevertheless the strong import demand in core EU countries has a benign effect, and we expect further improvement of the external balance next year on the back of the tightening of domestic demand."
Hungary's September trade deficit came in at EUR 116 m vs. EUR 170 m market consensus. Both exports and imports slowed considerably in September to 6.6% yr/yr and 6.5% yr/yr, respectively. In August both figures were still above 10% yr/yr.
The year-to-date trade deficit was EUR 1.8 bn vs. EUR 2.2 bn in 2005.Gyula Tóth, BA-CA, Vienna
“The YTD improvement of the trade balance is on the back of strong export results and partly on weak HUF in those months."
“We are not overly worried about the sharp slowdown of the dynamics as it was likely due to the working day effect (we estimate YoY working day adjusted export/import growth at 14.5/12.5% respectively in Sept from 17/12.5% in Aug, also see the wide difference between adjusted and non adjusted Sep industrial production released this week)."
“Looking ahead we continue to pencil in EUR2.2bn trade deficit for 2006. Although today's figure came on the positive side we see the market focusing on the HGB auction results and on possible comments from EU Commissioner Almunia. We remain mod U/W HUF."
István Zsoldos, Goldman Sachs, London
"Seasonality helped the trade balance this month, but export growth is slightly lower than we expected."
"Nevertheless the strong import demand in core EU countries has a benign effect, and we expect further improvement of the external balance next year on the back of the tightening of domestic demand."
