Most Asian stock indices have been in a positive range today, projecting gains in Europe as well. This, coupled with this morning’s losses of the US dollar vs. the euro, may prove a supportive factor for the Hungarian forint which opened at 274.50 vs. the European currency this morning. Trading in international markets may be driven by key US macro data this afternoon.
Trading in EUR/HUF and other regional currencies remains quiet a few days ahead of Christmas, influenced by global sentiment as well as end-year impacts.
The turmoil caused by inaccurate information on Hungary’s debt redemption schedule and the 2010 budget debate are unlikely to trigger major currency rate fluctuations.
The weakening of the Hungarian currency was clearly halted by the 200-day moving average (the rate bounced back to a stronger range) - that is the usual indicators have once again provided reliable guidance on the exchange rate. Yesterday’s unexpected minor rate cut is also mildly supportive of the forint. Quotes vs. the euro have been essentially “glued" to the 274.50 level.
Forint quotes vs. the US dollar have been around 192 this morning, while the Hungarian currency is traded at 183.50 vs. the Swiss franc.
Market attention is riveted on the release of Q3 GDP stats in the US at 2:30 p.m. CET, to be followed by November resale housing report at 4 p.m. According to market consensus, no major changes are expected in either release compared with the previous reports.
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