Economy
INSTANT VIEW - Hungarian imports grow sharply in Feb, trade surplus EUR 374 m (2)
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(Adds comment by 4Cast)
Hungary has posted a trade surplus of EUR 373.6 million in February, up from EUR 290 m in January and EUR 296 m in February 2009, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) has reported on Thursday. The balance of the first two months showed a surplus of EUR 664 mZsolt Kondrát, MKB Bank, Budapest
“The foreign trade balance for February was lower than consensus and our more upbeat forecast. The monthly data are notoriously volatile but taking January and February together the figures were much more in line with expectations. Both exports and imports were higher than our forecast, which is positive news, but it was imports that really surprised on the upside."
“These figures are reinforcing the message of industrial production data published earlier: industry and exports are pulling the economy. The future path of both production and foreign trade depends on the global, and especially the eurozone, economy where significant risks remained."
“We expect a continued but moderate pick-up in industrial production, imports and exports on a quarterly basis. The trade balance is expected to remain in massive (our forecast is EUR 5,3 billion) surplus in 2010 as a whole."
János Samu, Concorde Securities, Budapest
“Seasonally adjusted figures indicate that the surplus dropped slightly from the January high value on the back of slightly slower growth in exports."
“The full year surplus is going to be lower than last year, we believe, mainly as liquidity constraint at households and companies could ease slightly and domestic absorption could consequently slightly increase. This could result in a full year surplus of 3.8 billion this year (vs. 4 billion in 2009)."
Zoltán Árokszállási, Erste Bank, Budapest
“The February preliminary industrial output figure came in at 8.4% y/y, exceeding the latest Bloomberg consensus of 7.5% but falling short of our 10.3% expectation. The CSO published same numbers for adjusted and unadjusted figures. The monthly reading showed a 1.7% decrease seasonally and working day adjusted compared to January. The first two months of 2010 showed 5.9% higher industrial production compared to the same period of 2009 in Hungary."
“The preliminary numbers could support that the January unexpectedly high increase (+5.7% y/y wda and +8.9% m/m seasonally and wda) may have been the start of an upward trend in the industry (the Statistical Office will publish detailed information on 14 April)."
“This assumption is underpinned by the increasing purchasing manager indices both in the Eurozone and in Hungary, as well as increasing export figures. (The latest available information on export figures is the 2010 January reading, which came out at 15% y/y increase in euro terms. The KSH will publish preliminary February numbers tomorrow at 9.00 am CET.) Overall, the figure can be regarded as positive despite falling short of our more bullish expectations, and underpins that GDP growth may be positive this year in Hungary."
Diana Gesheva, 4Cast, Sofia
“Hungary's Feb preliminary trade surplus came at EUR 373.6mn, weaker than both 4Cast (EUR 550mn) and market expectations (EUR 505mn). Export growth accelerated to 18% y/y in Feb from 14.6% y/y in the previous month but imports caught up substantially with export growth in Feb, reaching 17.4% y/y from just 2.7% y/y in the first month of the year."
“This catching up stood behind the lower than expected surplus, driven by rising oil prices and base effects. Still trade performance is on a recovery path, albeit at a slowing pace, supported by slow but steady picking up in external demand."
Hungary has posted a trade surplus of EUR 373.6 million in February, up from EUR 290 m in January and EUR 296 m in February 2009, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) has reported on Thursday. The balance of the first two months showed a surplus of EUR 664 mZsolt Kondrát, MKB Bank, Budapest
“The foreign trade balance for February was lower than consensus and our more upbeat forecast. The monthly data are notoriously volatile but taking January and February together the figures were much more in line with expectations. Both exports and imports were higher than our forecast, which is positive news, but it was imports that really surprised on the upside."
“These figures are reinforcing the message of industrial production data published earlier: industry and exports are pulling the economy. The future path of both production and foreign trade depends on the global, and especially the eurozone, economy where significant risks remained."
“We expect a continued but moderate pick-up in industrial production, imports and exports on a quarterly basis. The trade balance is expected to remain in massive (our forecast is EUR 5,3 billion) surplus in 2010 as a whole."
János Samu, Concorde Securities, Budapest
“Seasonally adjusted figures indicate that the surplus dropped slightly from the January high value on the back of slightly slower growth in exports."
“The full year surplus is going to be lower than last year, we believe, mainly as liquidity constraint at households and companies could ease slightly and domestic absorption could consequently slightly increase. This could result in a full year surplus of 3.8 billion this year (vs. 4 billion in 2009)."
Zoltán Árokszállási, Erste Bank, Budapest
“The February preliminary industrial output figure came in at 8.4% y/y, exceeding the latest Bloomberg consensus of 7.5% but falling short of our 10.3% expectation. The CSO published same numbers for adjusted and unadjusted figures. The monthly reading showed a 1.7% decrease seasonally and working day adjusted compared to January. The first two months of 2010 showed 5.9% higher industrial production compared to the same period of 2009 in Hungary."
“The preliminary numbers could support that the January unexpectedly high increase (+5.7% y/y wda and +8.9% m/m seasonally and wda) may have been the start of an upward trend in the industry (the Statistical Office will publish detailed information on 14 April)."
“This assumption is underpinned by the increasing purchasing manager indices both in the Eurozone and in Hungary, as well as increasing export figures. (The latest available information on export figures is the 2010 January reading, which came out at 15% y/y increase in euro terms. The KSH will publish preliminary February numbers tomorrow at 9.00 am CET.) Overall, the figure can be regarded as positive despite falling short of our more bullish expectations, and underpins that GDP growth may be positive this year in Hungary."
Diana Gesheva, 4Cast, Sofia
“Hungary's Feb preliminary trade surplus came at EUR 373.6mn, weaker than both 4Cast (EUR 550mn) and market expectations (EUR 505mn). Export growth accelerated to 18% y/y in Feb from 14.6% y/y in the previous month but imports caught up substantially with export growth in Feb, reaching 17.4% y/y from just 2.7% y/y in the first month of the year."
“This catching up stood behind the lower than expected surplus, driven by rising oil prices and base effects. Still trade performance is on a recovery path, albeit at a slowing pace, supported by slow but steady picking up in external demand."
