Hungary manufacturing PMI drops from 4-yr high to 53.8 in March

Hungary's manufacturing PMI stood at 53.8 in the third month of 2011, down 3.1 ppts from February (56.9, which was revised downward from 57). The only time a higher score was recorded than in February was in April 2007 (58.2).

“Hungary’s manufacturing industry has been expanding constantly since July 2010 and the rate of this growth has been persistently high since November, although the current value is below the prints of the past four months," the HALPIM said.

The seasonally adjusted index has been above the 50-point mark in all three months of Q1.

A PMI index figure above 50 indicates expansion while a figure below 50 shows contraction in economic activity.

While the March PMI is lower than February’s print, it is still higher than the average of the March print of the past three years (48.6) and the past 15 years (51.8). March has been a mixed month over the past few years: the headline indicator was below the 50-pt mark in 1996, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2009, but it was slightly above 50 in several years.

The HALPIM has not provided specific index figures on the sub-indices only some general information, citing a change in methodology.

It said the index of production output dropped from the February figure (59.8), but has been above 50 for the 15th consecutive month. The index had been above the 50-pt mark for 14 months between July 2005 and June 2007. The monthly index was higher than now only three times over the past ten years.

The new orders index fell sharply but it is still the 6th highest figure for March since 1995. The index has been above the 50-pt mark for ten months in a row, which has been unprecedented since an 11-m streak between Aug 2007 and June 2008.

The rise in the index of inventories stopped after a one-off uptick in February, but the rate of decline is “extremely mild", the HALPIM said. The employment index was once again above the 50-pt mark and came in higher than in Feb. The index for the quantity of purchases dipped from Feb, but remains above 50. The index for the stock of finished goods rose somewhat in March and is the second-highest print for the third month of the year since 1995 (behind the 2004 data). Both the import and the export indices dropped from the Feb data, but still show expansion (for the 11th and the 16th consecutive month, respectively).

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