Hungary posts huge trade surplus in February, exports stagnate

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Hungary’s export and import volumes increased by 1.1% and 1.4% year on year, respectively in February 2012, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) has reported on Thursday. The country’s external trade was mainly influenced by the growing exports of some machinery products (power generating machinery and equipment, road vehicles) and the significant decrease in the exports of telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus. The detailed data contain even fewer revisions than usual therefore the overall picture remains the same: the trade surplus is huge every month but exports have been stagnating for a year now. This year’s trend can be influenced by contracting household consumption and lacklustre investment activity from the import side, while exports are to be impacted the most by a contrary effects of the weak European business cycle and Hungary’s new vehicle producing capacities.
The value of exports in January-February 2012 amounted to EUR 12,873 million, while that of imports was EUR 11,762 million; the volumes increased by 3.4% in exports and by 2.2% in imports compared to the reference months. The balance of trade showed a surplus of EUR 1,110 million, which meant a decrease of EUR 182 million in annual terms.

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In January-February 2012, the forint price level rose by 9.9% in imports and by 6.8% in exports compared to the reference period of 2011. The terms of trade deteriorated by 2.8%. In the first two months of this year, the forint exchange rate weakened by 13% against the dollar and by 9.4% against the euro.

The export and import volumes of machinery and transport equipment were slightly below those in the same period of 2011. In the main commodity group, the export volume of telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment declined by more than one fourth of caused by the significant drop in the exports of TV sets and their spare parts and mobile phones.

The imports of this commodity group hardly changed in the first two months of 2012, but in February a slight increase was registered. A one digit growth was measured in the export and import volumes of road vehicles and office machines and automatic data processing machines; at the same time, the export volume of power generating machinery increased by about one fifth due to investments in factory expansion last year.

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The export volume of manufactured goods grew by 12.8% and the import volume increased by 5.4% compared to January-February 2011. While the export volume of medical and pharmaceutical products increased by nearly one sixth and that of rubber manufactures by one fourth, their import volumes were around the base level. There was a significant growth in the export volume of iron and steel and manufactures of metals, and an above average increase in their imports, and the exports of professional, scientific and controlling instruments and apparatus grew by one tenth compared to the reference period.

The import volume of fuels and electric energy did not change year-on-year. Though the import volume of petroleum, petroleum products and related materials and natural and manufactured gas decreased in January, in February, the former commodity group grew slightly, and the latter one increased by more than one third due to the low base. The domestic needs were covered from the domestic gas stocks last February.

In the first two months of 2012, the export and import volumes of food, beverages and tobacco rose by 3.5% and 7.9%, respectively compared to the reference period. The increase was modest in the trade of cereals and cereal preparations in both directions, and a two digit volume growth was registered in the trade of feeding stuff for animal . Contrarily, a one digit decrease was observed in the imports of meat and meat preparations and vegetables and fruit, as well as in the trade of dairy products and birds'eggs in both directions.

In January-February 2012, the volumes of intra-EU exports and imports exceeded by 2.3% and 4.6%, respectively the levels recorded in the base months. In HUF terms, Hungary’s surplus with EU member states decreased by HUF 53 billion.

In extra-EU trade, the volume of exports grew by 6.8%, while imports were slightly below the level of the reference period. The deficit on Hungary’s trade was HUF 173 billion, HUF 28 billion less than in January-February 2011.
 

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