Economy 13 January 2015, 12:20pm

Hungary far-right Jobbik party snatches 150,000 voters from Fidesz

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The approval rating of Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party has diminished further among eligible voters in early 2015, pollster Ipsos found in its latest survey published on Tuesday. It has also found that the approval rating of opposition parties has not changed, whereas the group of those keeping a distance from politics expanded further.

Among eligible voters, the approval rating of Fidesz dropped another two percentage points after a 10ppt decline over the preceding two-month period, Ipsos told state newswire MTI today. Fidesz has lost one million voters over a quarter. Its approval rating presently stands at 23% among eligible voters, which translates into 1.8-1.9 million voters’ support.

The popularity of opposition parties has not changed at the turn of the year, according to the poll. Far-right extremist party Jobbik remains in the lead with 14%, i.e. it could gather votes from 1.1 million people if elections were held this Sunday.

The Socialist Party (MSZP) has been delivering the same results for about three months now, with an approval rating of 11%, i.e. about 900,000 voters.

Green party LMP (Politics Can Be Different) and the Democratic Coalition (DK) had 3% each, which corresponds to about a quarter million supporters. Együtt and PM (Dialogue for Hungary) have about 100,000 supporters each, as their approval rating stands at 1%.

The group of people keeping their distance from politics has grown further. The survey by Ipsos found that 41% of the respondents, i.e. about 3.3 million people want political parties to leave them alone and would not vote for any of them.

Among voters with a firm party preference Fidesz enjoys a 44% approval rating, tailed by Jobbik with 24%, MSZP with 19%, LMP with 6%, DK with 3% and Együtt and PM with 1% each.

Ipsos said that the essence of shifts in voters’ preferences over the past quarter was that voters drifted away from the governing party, as a result of which passivity and political uncertainty have increased.

Similar patterns were observed in the previous governing cycle too, the pollster noted, adding that those growing disappointed with Fidesz did not start backing opposition parties, even in the longer term.

“What we’re sensing right now is that Jobbik collected two percentage points more voters over the past month, which implies that about 150,000 voters apparently ‘migrated’ from Fidesz to Jobbik," Ipsos explained.

Left-wing parties, however, failed to capitalise on the shrinking appeal of the governing party in the period since last year’s election in the spring. The most they achieved is stabilising their position, the pollster said.

The Socialist Party is the strongest among them and it seems that over the last few months their voters “have overcome the lethargy which frequently characterised them previously."

In the autumn, half of the MSZP sympathisers showed political activity, whereas now two-thirds of them did so, bringing them on a par with Fidesz supporters. The split between Együtt and PM caused a drift in their voter base, and the presence of these parties is just powerful enough for their previous supporters to line up behind one or the other.

Ipsos discovered already in December last year that in some social groups support for Jobbik was close to the popularity of Fidesz or even surpassed it, such as among voters without a job. The current poll found that the Jobbik ‘beat’ the governing party in not one but two social groups. Among people out of work it has 22%, while Fidesz has only 18% and Jobbik leads among those employed as skilled workers 23% to 18%. In the age group of 30 and younger Fidesz boasts an approval rating of 22%, against 20% for Jobbik.

According to the analysis, the rising political uncertainty goes hand in hand with passivity. Those voters who cast their ballot in the 6 April general election, walked so far from the political arena in the nine months since then that they are virtually unswayable at this point, Ipsos analysed. This group is 16% of the voters, which translates into 1.3 million people. Only a fifth of them show some kind of political activity, the rest is left entirely unfazed by the world of politics and said they would definitely not vote if elections were held now. They were of this view even though 95% of them think that things in Hungary are going in the wrong direction, Ipsos said.