Economy
Hungary ruling party suffers surprise defeat in bellwether by-election
Péter Márki-Zay won 57.5% of the votes, against 41.6% for Fidesz candidate Zoltán Hegedűs, who is currently the deputy mayor of Hódmezővásárhely, a stronghold for the governing party.
The by-election is considered a bellwether before the 8 April general election and the defeat comes as a shock for the Fidesz party. Márki-Zay was an independent candidate by one that enjoyed support from the full spectrum of the opposition. Such co-operation, however, is not on the agenda on a national level at the moment. Given that this strategy worked surprisingly well at a key Fidesz constituency, we can expect some action on both sides of the political spectrum in the coming weeks.
Voter turnout was over 61% on Sunday, which suggests that although the opposition in Hungary is fragmented - and was recently labelled by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as out of touch and “hopeless" - its supporters could pose a greater challenge for Orbán than previously expected.
Márki-Zay was backed by the Socialist Party (MSZP), radical nationalist Jobbik, and LMP, a small liberal party.
Hódmezővásárhely is home to János Lázár, one of the key allies of Orbán and current head of the Prime Minister’s Office. In the last local election in 2014, Fidesz won with 61% of votes.
Political analyst Gábor Török remarked the following in his flash analysis:
Local news portal index.hu said “this victory holds several lessons," and that it could encourage the opposition to join forces against Orbán.
“While this victory does not endanger the probable triumph of Fidesz, it will certainly change the mood of the country in the final weeks before the election," the portal said.
“This (result) has a sweeping psychological significance," Reuters cited political analyst Róbert László at think tank Political Capital.
“It shows that Fidesz is beatable even in a place like this and the result could jolt opposition parties into action and rethinking their strategies."
“We stood up and Hódmezővásárhely has shown that we want to get rid of the big boys bullying the whole class," Márki-Zay told a press conference, drawing a big round of applause, with one of his children standing by his side.
“A new era has begun today," he said, adding that public opinion polls showing a dominant Fidesz lead “could be thrown into the garbage bin."
The by-election is considered a bellwether before the 8 April general election and the defeat comes as a shock for the Fidesz party. Márki-Zay was an independent candidate by one that enjoyed support from the full spectrum of the opposition. Such co-operation, however, is not on the agenda on a national level at the moment. Given that this strategy worked surprisingly well at a key Fidesz constituency, we can expect some action on both sides of the political spectrum in the coming weeks.
Voter turnout was over 61% on Sunday, which suggests that although the opposition in Hungary is fragmented - and was recently labelled by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as out of touch and “hopeless" - its supporters could pose a greater challenge for Orbán than previously expected.
Márki-Zay was backed by the Socialist Party (MSZP), radical nationalist Jobbik, and LMP, a small liberal party.
Hódmezővásárhely is home to János Lázár, one of the key allies of Orbán and current head of the Prime Minister’s Office. In the last local election in 2014, Fidesz won with 61% of votes.
Political analyst Gábor Török remarked the following in his flash analysis:
- The outcome of today’s by-election shows that the voters in Hódmezővásárhely wanting a change of government were buying into the opposition co-op shepherded behind the independent candidate.
- Fidesz has indeed lost, but its base in Hódmezővásárhely remains more or less intact. The number of votes won by the party’s candidate was higher than at the previous two elections, although the ratio was significantly lower due to high turnout.
- Although János Lázár’s name will be on the ballot papers only on 8 April, it was obvious for everyone that this by-election was about him. The minister has enjoyed two huge advantages in local politics so far. He stood out from the Fidesz party with his resilience and competence, first of all. Secondly, his local support and power appeared to be unquestionable and unshakeable [...] This power has weakened now, although it is difficult to say how big a role he personally played in this defeat.
- Although there are still no public opinion polls out there, Török has cited two internal polls that had predicted Fidesz victory with over 60% of the votes.
- The outcome of the by-election could seriously influence the way of thinking by opposition leaders and their tactics to be used in the different constituencies.
Local news portal index.hu said “this victory holds several lessons," and that it could encourage the opposition to join forces against Orbán.
“While this victory does not endanger the probable triumph of Fidesz, it will certainly change the mood of the country in the final weeks before the election," the portal said.
“This (result) has a sweeping psychological significance," Reuters cited political analyst Róbert László at think tank Political Capital.
“It shows that Fidesz is beatable even in a place like this and the result could jolt opposition parties into action and rethinking their strategies."
“We stood up and Hódmezővásárhely has shown that we want to get rid of the big boys bullying the whole class," Márki-Zay told a press conference, drawing a big round of applause, with one of his children standing by his side.
“A new era has begun today," he said, adding that public opinion polls showing a dominant Fidesz lead “could be thrown into the garbage bin."
