Mario Draghi might upset markets again this week

We are off to slow start this week. The only release worth mentioning in Hungary will be detailed figures on the March general government balance on Monday. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI data for April will be published in Western Europe. The same stats will come out in the United States in the second half of the day.

On Tuesday morning, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) is going to release revised retail sales figures, and the Government Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) will hold its regular weekly auction of 3-month discount Treasury Bills. The IFO economic sentiment index is to be released in Germany in the morning. And that’s it for the day, although this is still more than what we’ll have on Wednesday: no key release at all.

On Thursday, we’ll have the most important event of the week, a policy meeting by the European Central Bank (ECB), to be followed by ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference that could have an impact primarily on the EUR/USD exchange rate. For now, the investors do not expect the ECB to change its rhetoric and believe that the communication about a gradual QE tapering will continue. It will also be interesting to see how the ECB evaluates the inflation outlook as a factor affecting the interest rate outlook. Consumer durable orders data will be released in the U.S., in parallel with the start of Draghi’s speech.

On the last day of the week, the Hungarian statistical office will release jobless figures for March, and the Bank of Japan is also holding a policy meeting on Friday morning. The UK will publish their first quarter GDP print, but U.S. growth statistics to be released in the second half of the day will be watched even more closely.

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• Mario Draghi,
• macroeconomy,
• economy,
• ecb,
• macro calendar,
• pmi,
• purchasing managers' index