If the number of new passenger car registrations matches the first-half figure, a new record will be set in Hungary in 2018. The highest number of new car registrations, 274,000, was reached in 2003, but the H1 figure of 150,000 suggests that a new all-time high could be reached this year. The term “new", however, refers only to the fact that the cars are newcomers in Hungary, as more than half of them are imported used cars. As a consequence of that, we can expect another - unfortunately negative - record to be broken this year, namely the average age of cars in traffic. Surveys conducted on commission by Robert Bosch Ltd. show, however, that the situation is not as bad as it seems at first glimpse.
The number of cars on Hungarian roads has been rising constantly over the last six years and reached 3.58 million by the end of June this year. The growth is attested by the fact that after a total of 272,000 vehicles were newly registered in the whole of 2017 (including used cars), the number of new registrations reached 150,000 in H1 this year. Extrapolating this figure for the whole year, we could have at least 300,000 new registrations this year, which would break a 15-year record.
The number of cars on Hungarian roads has grown steadily over the last six years and stood at 3.58 million in the first half of 2018. Figures of new registrations (including imported used cars) give an idea of how fast car ownership is rising: 272,000 cars were registered last year, but there were 150,000 in the first six months of 2018 already. The survey finds that 46% of Hungarian households have cars, most of them self-owned. Company cars make up only 2 or 3% of the total, shows a survey conducted by Medián on commission by Robert Bosch Ltd. The surveys had been taken biannually since 2008, with a sample of 2,400 people.
The average age of cars in Hungary has been constantly rising for eleven years: this year, the research shows that it was 13.9 years in the first half of 2018, 0.7 years higher than two years ago.
The distribution of cars by age has been steadily deteriorating since the surveys started, mostly because of the sustained fall in new car purchases following the 2008 economic crisis. The process has slowed down in recent years, and after a low point in 2012, the new car market has been picking up since 2014.
Last year, 116,265 new cars were registered in Hungary, 20.4 per cent more than the in 2016 (96,594) and 50.6% more than in 2015 (77,179). The average age of cars is the lowest in the highest-status groups - Budapest residents, high earners and graduates - but not under two figures in any of them.
Only Budapest residents and graduates spend less time in the car
The proportion of households with cars has not changed much since the surveys began, but reached its highest figure this year, at 46 per cent. In the highest-status groups - graduates (66%) and the highest earners (50%) - the number of car users is stably high. Between 2016 and 2018, the number of car users grew fastest among people aged 30-39 years and the lower-middle income group, the former to 63% from 51%, the latter to 55% from 41%.
According to the Bosch survey, the average age of cars in Hungary has been constantly rising for eleven years: this year, the research shows that it was 13.9 years in the first half of 2018, 0.7 years higher than two years ago. The distribution of cars by age has been steadily deteriorating since the surveys started, mostly because of the sustained fall in new car purchases following the 2008 economic crisis.
The process has slowed down in recent years, and after a low point in 2012, the new car market has been picking up since 2014. Last year, 116,265 new cars were registered in Hungary, 20.4 per cent more than the in 2016 (96,594) and 50.6% more than in 2015 (77,179).
The average age of cars is the lowest in the highest-status groups - Budapest residents, high earners and graduates - but not single-digit figures in any of them.
Most cars are driven between 5,000 and 10,000 kilometres a year, and on average they have 17,000 kilometres on the clock, 800 more than two years ago. Car use grew in nearly every social group, most of all among young people, those with no more than eight years of education, graduates of secondary school, and villagers. Only Budapest residents and college/university graduates used their cars less than two years ago, and only slightly.
Average age of passenger cars has been rising for 11 years
Central Statistical Office (KSH) data, however, show an even more depressing picture in terms of the average age of the local car fleet: the average age in H1 was 14.2 years after 14.1 last year. The average age of passenger cars has been rising for 11 years in a row, due to the constant import of old cars. In light of this, pushing the average age of cars to under ten years remains a pipedream for a few more years to come. The best Hungary could do was 10.3 years in 2003, but the fleet has been constantly aging ever since despite a pickup in new car registrations in 2014.
The reason behind that is that a majority of the newly registered cars are in fact imported vehicles and most of them are over ten years old.
According to Datahouse figures, a total of 155,414 used cars were imported in 2017, versus 122,000 new car sales. Since the import boom in 2012, Hungarians bought total of 641,000 imported cars, and only 20% of these were younger than five years, while 61% were over ten years old.
This means that the local car fleet’s expansion is based on European used cars, but it does offer a silver lining that although both used car imports and new car sales show an ascending trend, their ratios compared to each other changed in a positive direction. While nearly 60% of newly registered cars were used in 2015, their share was down at 50% in H1 this year.
According to 2016 data by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the number of cars per 1,000 people was 338 in Hungary versus the European average of 505, which shows there is still room for further expansion. And if a turnaround in trend does occur in the future, i.e. more new passenger cars make it into traffic than imported cars of over 10 years of age, the rise in the average age of cars will not only stop in Hungary, it may even drop.
Car fleet is aging in the whole of Europe
The EU motor vehicle fleet is getting older year-on-year. The average age of cars in Hungary is high compared to the European average, according to data by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). The average age for passenger cars was 11 years in 2016, versus 10.8 years in 2015, 10.6 in 2014 and 10.4 in 2013. Looking at the breakdown by country, the situation is even more disturbing: The average age is not over 10 years anywhere in the western side of the continent, apart from the Mediterranean region (Portugal: 12.8, Spain: 11.9, Italy: 11.2). Even in Great Britain they’re appalled by exceeding the 8-year average age. The only countries in the region that boast even older car fleets are Romania (16.2) and Poland (17.3), although ACEA’s average for Hungary (14.9) is for a year later than that of the KSH (13.9). The situation is not exactly rosy in the United States, either, as the average age of cars reached 12 last year.
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