The release of Hungary’s GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2018 last week will be followed by a series of other important figures both domestically and globally this week. Fitch Ratings has a review scheduled for Hungary’s credit rating this Friday, which might deliver yet another pleasant “surprise" after an upgrade by Standard & Poor’s on 15 February. The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) has already released its preliminary financial accounts data showing Hungary’s end-2018 debt-to-GDP ratio, and we might want to watch purchasing manager indices abroad later in the week.
We’re off to a quick start in Hungary this week. On Monday morning, the central bank published its preliminary financial accounts data, which showed that the Finance Ministry’s earlir estimate of a sub-72% of GDP end-2018 debt-to-GDP ratio was in fact too cautious. International reserves for end-January will also be released. U.S. markets are closed due to Presidents’ Day.
On Tuesday, one of the key releases will be the ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany and an auction of 3-month discount Treasury Bills by the Government Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) in Hungary. We’ll not shift into higher gear on Wednesday, either; the only event worth mentioning is the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.
The second half of the week will be busier. On Thursday morning, the KSH will publish earnings figures for December which will give us a full picture on 2018. Detailed data will follow up a preliminary report on retail sales last week, and the Finance Ministry is to publish a report on general government processes in January. This should reveal what brought about the massive surplus in the first month of 2019.
Elsewhere, we should keep an eye mainly on preliminary manufacturing PMI releases, as well as a German inflation release and a key U.S. release on consumer durable orders.
On Friday morning, the Hungarian stats office will publish Q4 2018 data for dwelling constructions and building permits, and Fitch Ratings is expected to release the outcome of its credit rating review for Hungary in the evening.
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