A host of key events await us this week and there will be no shortage of macroeconomic releases, either. In Hungary, for instance, we are going to learn about the 2020 (draft) budget and the latest inflation data are also in the pipeline that could have an impact on the forint, as well. In the meantime, markets are to focus mainly in the European Central Bank (ECB) upcoming policy meeting.
The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) is set to release its regular monthly statistics about credit institutions, loan portfolios and interest rates on Monday morning, and we should also have the latest PMI data, a key indicator of Hungary’s economic cycle. Over the last few months, we have received reassuring figures, as Hungary’s manufacturing PMI did not falter despite a downturn in the European economy. The ISM PMI is also scheduled for release in the United States on Monday.
Hungary’s Finance Minister Mihály Varga is expected to show the public the draft budget for 2020 on Tuesday, at least he hinted at that last week. The details of the bill are of key importance, as they will reveal not only the deficit target but also the main revenue and expenditure goals. In the morning, Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, is going to release inflation data for May, yet another set of figures you might want to keep an eye on.
On Wednesday morning, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) is going to publish its retail sales statistics for April, and Eurostat will follow suit later in the day. In the U.S., the ADP labour market index showing employment in the business sector is set for release in the early afternoon; it is a key indicator for market of the overall job market stats due out on Friday.
We should also pay heed to the KSH on Thursday morning, as it is set to release preliminary industrial production figures. In the morning, the Government Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) is to hold its regular biweekly bond auction. The ECB’s policy meeting trumps the auction and so does the subsequent press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi which investors will watch closely looking for guidance about the ECB’s future monetary policy moves.
Hungary’s central bank (MNB) is expected to have its Q1 statistical release about the prudential data of credit institutions some time on Friday. The core information in this will be the profits the banks posted in the first quarter. The KSH's inflation data are to be at least that important. The May CPI is expected to set the course for the forint, and it may put the Monetary Council in a difficult position at the June policy meeting. In the afternoon, investors are expected to keep an eye on U.S. labour market data.
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