Will Hungary's economy defy expectations once more in Q4?
We will start strong Monday morning when the Central Statistical Office (KSH) publishes detailed data on September's foreign trade. November's manufacturing PMI will also be released today, which should tell us a lot about the economy's fourth quarter. The U.S. will also publish fresh data on manufacturing Monday afternoon, and the new president of the ECB will hold her first speech.
On Tuesday, no pills will be required to counter exciting market events: aside from the usual T-bill auction, we have nothing on the calendar for the day in Hungary or abroad. Then on Wednesday, the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) will come out with its monthly statistics on credit institutions. Outside Hungary, we will see activity in the service sector in Europe and the U.S. alike, and the latter will also release data on private employment.
On Thursday, the KSH will publish October's retail trade figures, which should add a further piece to the puzzle on Hungary's Q4 growth. Germany's manufacturing orders could also be interesting to Hungary, while detailed Eurostat GDP figures will show us if Hungary held its top position in Europe regarding GDP growth in the third quarter.
The MNB will release prudential data on credit institutions on Friday, which will tell us how profitable Hungary's banking system was in Q3. The KSH will follow shortly after with preliminary data on October's industrial output, which, just as the previous day's retail trade figures, could determine growth in the last three months of the year. The two figures together could paint a rudimentary picture on how much the economy is slowing in Q4, although there is a possibility that Hungary will deliver another surprise and keep growing at a strong pace. Also on Friday, Germany will release fresh data on industrial output, while in the U.S. the Fed will be eyeing November's labour market statistics closely.
It is a rare occasion when we can mark something on the calendar on a weekend, but as this Saturday counts as a regular weekday in Hungary, the MNB chose that day to publish its monthly statistics on securities, Moreover, hardcore macroeconomic fans will not be left out in the cold on Sunday, either, although China's foreign trade data will probably not rock the markets.
