When could Hungary re-open its economy?

According to the latest available data (from Monday morning), more than 289,000 Hungarians have received their first COVID-19 vaccine jabs and nearly 108,000 of them got their second shot, as well.

The four-day vaccination campaign (from Thursday to Sunday) of people over 89 years of age was almost a complete success, as 39,109 of the targeted 40,000 have received their shots. Meanwhile, the seven-day moving average of those receiving their first jab rose back to over 10,000 per day. The recently leaked vaccination campaign plan shows that the peak capacity should be reached at about half a million (!) people per day provided there’s enough vaccine.

That’s quite a long way away, though. However, after receiving continuous shipments from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, Hungary last Saturday received the first batch of AstraZeneca’s vaccine enough for over 20,000 people. The National Public Health Centre (NNK) has also cleared for use Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, and Hungary received 40,000 doses of it last Tuesday. These will be rolled out as of Monday. In view of the above, we should expect the vaccination campaign to pick up pace over the next couple of weeks.

The 289,000 people vaccinated against COVID-19 means translates into almost 3.0% of the population, which is considered low in regional terms. The percentage of those that got their second jab is only around 1%. (Immunity generally kicks in within seven days after the second shot.)

Looking at a couple of other countries, Hungary is well behind Israel where 63 of every 100 people have been vaccinated against COVID-19, the United Kingdom (17.6/100), the United States (11.7/100), and the United Arab Emirates (42.5/100). Within Central and Eastern Europe, Hungary (4.0/100) it is in the mid-section of the rankings led by Serbia (7.9), which is the only country here that uses a Chinese vaccine, Slovenia (4.7), Romania (4.4), and Poland (4.3), but it has done better than Slovakia (3.9), Czechia (3.2) and Croatia (2.3).

While 3% of the population is protected against the virus, i.e. they will definitely not fall drastically ill or develop serious adverse reactions even if they contract it, a host of people recovered from the infection without even being registered in the state system or not even knowing that they had contracted coronavirus. Up to Monday morning, 373,000 people officially had and recovered from COVID-19 which translates into 3.8% of the population.

Therefore, at least 6.8% of the population could be immune to coronavirus at the moment.

International scientific literature shows that at least five or ten times more people contract the virus than what official data show, but given this is only an estimate and not proven data, it cannot be used responsibly in re-opening planning.

Most of us want to know when there will be enough vaccine and vaccinated people to re-open the economy safely, while making sure that a few weeks later the number of COVID-19 cases resurges and we have a full-blow pandemic on our hands again. And then there’s also the different new variants of coronavirus that spread more rapidly. Unfortunately, local reports have been showing deterioration in some indicators for a couple of days now.

Current restrictions are to be in place until 1 March. It also remains unclear whether the government would lift them in one fell swoop or gradually (in two stages).

What does seem certain is that the issue will be discussed in early March and then again around Easter (early April). The government has also announced a new national consultation to find out what people think about the re-opening, whether or not those vaccinated should be granted some beneficial treatment, will there be an official vaccine certificate/passport, etc., but it’s a political manoeuvre and we sincerely hope that the cabinet will rely on scientists’ opinion rather than the vox populi. Also note that the results of these surveys are not public, and the questions are rather rhetorical – and often filled with fearmongering and scapegoating, targeting Brussels, George Soros or migrants, for example.

The timing of the re-opening depends on

• the quantity of vaccines available;
• the willingness of people to get their COVID-19 shots;
• the acceptance/rejection of the Russian and Chinese vaccines; and
• actual roll out and the capacity to vaccinate (hospitals, GPs, vaccination sites).

Based on the latest remarks by vaccine producers and government officials, we estimate that Hungary will have enough doses for about 1.5 million people by early March and for about 3.5 million by early April. Theoretically, the critical level of 6 million required to reach herd immunity might be reached by the end of April, and then gradually more and more shipments will be arriving over the following months.

The two main issues are logistics and the population’s approach to vaccines in general and particularly to vaccines not approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) but cleared by Hungarian authorities under political pressure and in professionally questionable processes.

For instance, the National Medicines and Food Health Institute (OGYÉI) uploaded several documents about the vaccines developed by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, including the conditional marketing authorisation, and the approval process. It also has a presentation on their efficiency, the vaccination procedure, and how the vaccines work. Information about AstraZeneca’s product (also approved by the EMA and the European Commission) are not as ample, although the OGYÉI had cleared it for use before the EMA did.

Whereas the OGYÉI approved the use of Russia’s Sputnik V, it has uploaded only a single statement saying it would check every production batch separately. This statement was released because press reports highlighted that Hungary run no clinical tests of the Russian vaccine, and that the composition of Sputnik V was not the same in doses received in small quantities and doses of mass production to be used in Hungary.

Searching for ‘Sputnik V’ on the site gives us two more hits: a statement on the authorisation of AstraZeneca’s vaccine, and a rejection of claims by opposition MP Ákos Hadházy in relation to the Russian vaccine, but the OGYÉI does not actually say why he is wrong.

There’s absolutely no document available on the website about Sinopharm’s COVID-19 vaccine, although the OGYÉI had also cleared it for use in Hungary and the cabinet signed a contract with Beijing for five million doses (enough for the inoculation of 2.5 million people).

As for Hungarians’s willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19, the latest survey by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) is somewhat reassuring. It shows a further drop in vaccine rejection and an increase in acceptance. The end-January (Jan.25-31) survey shows that 40% of respondents would get their COVID-19 jabs, 27% are on the fence, 24% still say no and 9% does not know or declined to answer. Assuming that at least half of those saying they may choose to get vaccinated, the 60% herd immunity threshold would be close.

When it comes to planning the re-opening in consideration of how many people are immune to coronavirus, we examined three factors. Firstly, the theoretical supply of vaccines. That’s the green line. We used the assumption that vaccines will be used as soon as they arrive. Secondly, the theoretical supply of vaccines plus the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases over the last six months. This would give us the number of people immune to the virus either because they recovered from it or because they are vaccinated against it. There’s a third line, which is based on remarks made by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who estimated last Friday that there would be 1 million (artificially or naturally) immune people by early March and 2 million by early April. That’s the blue line on the chart.

The chart shows a theoretical maximum and practical minimum percentage of the population that could be immune to coronavirus on given dates.

By early March, only 10% will be immune in the worst-case scenario, and 10% in the best-case scenario. By early April, the gap would widen to between 20% and 41%.

In our second scenario, we assumed that only half of the Chinese and Russian vaccines shipped to Hungary will be used (blue line) and in our third we assumed a complete rejection of these vaccines (orange line). Orbán’s estimate yields an even worse scenario, but this may stem from a difference in vaccine delivery data/assumptions and the fact that our three scenarios assume the immediate use of vaccines upon their arrival, while authorisation and logistics issues could easily delay the use.

The government is expected to face questions of re-opening with 10% of the population being immune to coronavirus under the worst-case scenario and with 16-18% under the best-case scenario, as shown in the chart below.

The respective ratios by early April are estimated at 20% (worst-case) and 32-41% (best-case).

This shows a much greater uncertainty two months forward, and a lot depends on the population’s inclination to get Russian or Chinese shots. It is the government’s job, hopefully backed up by expert opinions, to sway the public opinion. It can choose to try and shove Russian and Chinese vaccines down people’s throat, so to speak, or try full transparency for a change.

Overall, there’s a realistic chance the government will be able to seriously contemplate lifting restrictions by early April, but a lot depends on epidemiological statistics, the efficiency of the different vaccines also against the new variants, and the willingness of the population to get Russian and Chinese shots.

We might say it is not really up to the government rather than up to the people when the economy could be re-opened, but if the eastern vaccines are as efficient and safe as the cabinet claims them to be, it should apply tactics that actually work and boost the trust of people in these vaccines.

Cover photo: MTI/ Attila Balázs. Owner works on the books in his Italian restaurant closed due to the coronavirus pandemic in Nyíregyháza on 11 November 2020.