Hungary's Orbán envisions re-opening in a month

Four new announcements

Following an announcement by Gergely Gulyás, minister in charge of the Prime Minister's Office, about ten tightening measures on Thursday, PM Orbán has shared very little new information, although there's a host of questions waiting to be clarified. Businesses and the general population will be kept in the dark about these until the Official Gazette is published and media outlets start to delve into the new rules and share their findings with the public. 

The novelties PM Orbán revealed today are the following:

• do-it-yourself outlets can remain open;
• florists can remain open on 8 March (Women's Day) but then they'll have to close for two weeks like the rest;
• crèches remain open for now;
• services, including restaurants need to close down.

Not going into lockdown would have led to tragedy

As regards the tightening measures announced yesterday, Orbán said they had no choice. Epidemiological experts recommended these and the government listened to them. They said

there will be tragedy if we don't make a move. Doctors said we need to close now in order to be able to re-open later. On the week starting with 15 March we'll work out how we can gradually re-open after Easter.

"We're in the third wave [of the coronavirus pandemic]. It will be stronger than the second one, we need to brace ourselves for the hardest of times," warned Orbán.

Distance teaching continues in secondary schools, while elementary schools and kindergartens will be closed.

It's a new information that crèches will remain open, but Orbán said that eventually they might also have to be closed. 

As regards services, all the essential units will remain open (grocery stores, DIY outlets, pharmacies, drugstores, filling stations), but electronic goods stores need to close and restaurants and casinos will remain closed too. Florists were given an extra day, 8 March. 

It is unclear what how the new measures will affect restaurants that are already closed and can offer only takeout food. We suspect that there will be no change in this respect, but we'll have to see the Official Gazette.

Orbán also said casinos will remain closed, which is odd because when the government closed businesses in the entertainment and catering industries in the second wave, casinos were allowed to remain open. The only rules they had to comply with was the 8 P.M. curfew due to which they were required to be closed by 7 P.M., and guests were required to keep a 1.5 meter distance.

Gulyás said in late November that casinos were allowed to remain open since, in a legal context, they do not fall into the category of entertainment, but are instead considered stores. He argued that they also have to close at 7 P.M. and no entertainment facility would normally remain open if they had to close at that time. János Fónagy, state secretary in charge of parliamentary issues relating to national assets, told news portal Telex in mid-February that casinos are not considered catering establishments, but he did not say what category casinos fall into then. The state secretary of the ruling Fidesz party did not mention, however, that the 11 casinos that all require state concession to operate are owned by businessmen that have friendly relations with the government.

There could be 15,000 to 20,000 coronavirus patients in hospitals

Businesses affected by the lockdown measures will be exempted from rental fees for the entire month (those that rent places from the state that is); wage support and tax allowances will be granted to small taxpayers (KATA) the same way these were given to hotels, said Orbán.

Up to Thursday evening, 862,953 people have been vaccinated against COVID-19 in Hungary, and 2.9 millino Hungarians applied for their shot. By the first week of April, there will be 2.4 million people inoculated against coronavirus that will go up to 4.7 million by early May and to 8 million by early July, he added.

Where there will be pressure is hospitals. Because the number of hospitalised [COVID-19] patients will run high.

Hungarian authorities confirmed 6,369 new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases on Thursday, there were 143 coronavirus-related fatalities, nearly 7,000 people are being treated in hospital, and 677 of them are on ventilators, the PM said.

There are 6,867 coronavirus patients in hospital that could surge to between 15,000 and 20,000, he has warned.

Orbán assured there will be enough beds and enough people, adding that they are trying to involve residents, medical students and possibly even physicians in private health care.

Data-based vaccination on its way

A lot of people do not reside where they are registered and this has caused problems. Data-based vaccination organisation does have issues and these will be addressed, said Orbán. People will no longer be inoculated based on their personal relations rather than based on data. 

Vaccine procurement in progress

The government is making efforts to ensure not only that vaccines are delivered in Hungary on time, but possibly ahead of schedule and in greater volumes. The Chinese have now sent 50,000 more doses, and the Russians are also meeting the contractual terms, albeit with delays.

So, they're not meeting these terms. If there's a contract with delivery deadlines and the deadlines are missed, the terms are not met. It's pretty simple. Only Orbán is somehow more lenient when it comes to Moscow and rather stern when it comes to Brussels.

Meanwhile, Hungary committed to purchasing only half of the EU-authorised Moderna vaccines that could have been allocated in proportion to its population. According to calculation by Telex, the country only committed to buying 1.74 million out of the 3.5 million doses that could have been available to it under the EU’s joint procurement scheme.

“The mechanism of action of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is very similar, but Pfizer has been able to provide more favourable customer conditions and prices,” a government spokesperson told RTL explaining why the government has not purchased more vaccines.

However, the Moderna jab is only half the price of the Sinopharm jab, according to The Lancet medical, costing  $31 compared to Chinese vaccine’s  $62 per course of treatment.

Budapest’s preoccupation with affordability also contradicts previous statements from Orbán, who on numerous occasions emphasised that jab costs should not stand in the way of vaccinations, Euractiv reported.

Gradual re-opening could start in two weeks

Experts' estimates for the period beyond 22 March are spread in a wide range, they have drawn up various trends. Some think the new lockdown measures could break the third wave after 10 to 12 days. Others estimate 14 days, and some think re-opening after 14 days should be done very cautiously in order to avoid a fourth wave. 

In any case, we are in the final straight in the war against the virus. We could start a gradual re-opening in two weeks.

When you think you finally have some kind of answer to your questions about the cabinet's plans, the PM messes it all up. There are indeed lots of uncertainties in the pandemic and it is extremely difficult to make plans for months ahead, but we're more confused about this than we should be. Does the government plan to start re-opening the economy after Easter (4 April) or two weeks from now (19 March) or two weeks from the start of the new lockdown measures (22 March)? What's it gonna be? Besides, the epidemic curve does not suggest that we're in the "final straight" as the PM said. It rather says there are few more laps to run, and that not everyone will make it to the finish line.