Hungary re-opening lengthens epidemic curve, warns epidemiologist
Beatrix Oroszi’s key statements in the interview were the following:
We’re past the peak of the third wave in the pandemic, with new daily confirmed COVID-19 down by some 40%. Yet, this is still similar to what we saw at the peak of the second wave, we remain in the danger zone and the health care system is still significantly strained.
The most likely scenario is that the pandemic is petering out, but a new coronavirus variant can change the scene therefore we must remain vigilant, and people still need to comply with epidemiological regulations.
If the number of contacts remained at a pre-Easter level, the number of new daily cases could halve every two weeks.
This process is stymied by the lifting of restriction measures, due to which it could take longer for the pandemic to let up.
If the number of contacts rises only by ten percent, it will take four instead of two weeks for the number of daily cases to halve.
The emergence of new variants can create a whole new situation therefore an up-to-date surveillance system needs to be set up by which the genetic sequence of human coronaviruses needs to be systematically analysed.
Hungary’s competitive advantage against the virus has increased a lot by the vaccination of a great number of people.
With regard to the re-opening of nurseries and elementary schools scheduled for 19 Apri, Oroszi recommends that teachers and students should wear a mask at all times and keep their distance, at least until two weeks passed after teachers received their second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. It may not be easy to teach in a mask, but it’s not impossible either, she said.
Or, the government may decide it makes no sense to keep secondary schools closed until 10 May, not to have oral final exams for seniors between 4-26 June, while aiming for full-house (i.e. 67,000 fans) football matches in the Puskás Arena in Euro 2021 (the European Football Championship). Budapest is scheduled to host three Group F matches on 15, 19, and 23 June, and a round of 16 match on 27 June. The Hungarian Football Association (MLSz) needs to send the final attendance numbers to the UEFA by April 28th. The government has already stated that only vaccinated fans can attend the matches, and having the vaccination certificate will be key to access. According to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, everyone that registered for a COVID-19 vaccine in Hungary will have received their jabs by June.
Oroszi also said that every single recommendation made by epidemiological experts was heard
only not necessarily when they were made
For example, testing capacities were increased only in the second wave. “It is true, however, that we’d like to see significantly more tests performed.”
Experts creating epidemiological models have tabled a great number of proposals for re-opening, lockdown, a gradual approach, and some of these were accepted. The team acknowledges that policymakers need to take into consideration not only epidemiological aspects, but also economic and social aspects when taking a decision, said Oroszi.
In late March, Oroszi said the virus cannot be eradicated (smallpox was the only virus ever successfully eradicated) only eliminated, because it remains present in animals. In the short-term, we’ll have to learn to live with the virus, and thanks to vaccines it will cause mild or moderately serious symptoms and “we’re within arm’s reach” of being able to treat coronavirus patients with therapy.
She also said this is typically not a war but a race against the virus, where humanity is constantly on the tail of the virus and it must not let it “slip through our fingers”.
