Experts fear fourth wave in Hungary

Fourth wave: why wouldn’t it come?

This virus is able to adapt to our defence measures as there are variants that can circumvent vaccines, Oroszi said, warning that further new variants may emerge.

Vaccination in itself will not be sufficient to prevent a fourth wave,

she said.

Her biggest fear is that a new mutation could launch a fourth wave. It could spread and form infection chains unnoticed, and by the time we realised, it would be too late, she said. This is a risk of high virus circulation as it gives the virus an opportunity to spread, mutate and multiply, Oroszi added.

According to virologist Ferenc Jakab,

not having a fourth wave is not realistic.

Jakab expects the pandemic to return this autumn, although he hopes it will be smaller than the third wave. “Seeing the number of infections worldwide, I would be surprised to see it gone,” he said.

“Why wouldn’t there be?” Oroszi said when asked if there will be a next wave, adding that the fact that most countries have not learned to wait for very low case numbers before re-opening will probably lead to new mutations. Proper pandemic control allows us to identify a new variant in time and prevent its spread, but failure to do so will mean one or two new variants, she said.

Virus mutating and raging

The virus is raging across most of the world,

Oroszi said. “It is a supervirus. I respect it and also fear it,” she added.

It has surprised us a couple of times already, and I would not like it to happen again,

she said. Oroszi, a member of the Pandemic Mathematics Modelling and Epidemiology project team of the Ministry of Innovation and Technology warned that

there would not have been a third wave if not for the UK variant.

There are a large number of coronavirus mutations, but most of these die off, Jakab said. However, point mutations beneficial to the virus persist through positive selection. For example, the Indian variant picked up to the two known mutations we already know and incorporated it in one strain, he said, adding that evolutionary pressure also worked on viruses.

Jakab, head of the Coronavirus Research Action Team, also voiced optimism, saying that the world would be more prepared in coming months as there will be much larger manufacturing capacity to make COVID vaccines.

We must learn from India’s example

The developments in India show how swiftly the pandemic situation can change, and this is what happens when a major wave hits an unprepared country, Oroszi said, calling for further reinforcements of pandemic authorities in Hungary. We have no control over whether a new variant emerges but we can control its spread, she said.

We should keep in mind that this virus can explode at mass events where superspreaders are formed, Oroszi highlighted.

What will re-opening cause?

We must open the economy and we can’t live locked up, but there needs to be a consensus among pandemic experts, decision-makers, health workers and the general population. The autumn and winter months will still require a strong defence even if we are no longer locked down, Oroszi said.

After that period, when we use the vaccines effective against variants and enough people become protected, we can lay back in 2022,

she said.

Asked what the opening of terraces could cause, Oroszi said the most probable scenario was that the third wave would taper off, but there could still be local outbreaks. There will result in many new cases, a large number of people in hospital and more fatalities, she warned, adding that not being careful with superspreader events could influence how fast the pandemic recedes.

Jakab concurred and said we should not forget superspreaders. At present, everyone knows vaccines and their side effects, we know about AstraZeneca and blood clotting, but we have forgotten superspreaders. he said.

Re-opening will not influence the direction of the wave, and it should taper off, but there could be local outbreaks,

Jakab said.

“We need pandemic defence measures AND vaccination. Not ‘or’, emphatically ‘and’”, Jakab said. Re-opening itself is not the problem, as we need to have a gradual and systematic opening strategy that meets all demands, he added.

“I turn to the people as I want to point out the social responsibility of the individual. You can use terraces smartly, or you can have a festival on them,” Jakab said.

Physician Zoltán Szekanecz also believes we are forgetting things about the pandemic. It is important to see that vaccination is just one tool in defence, he said.

It could be over by 2022 if we do everything

The pandemic is not over, and the WHO said no such thing either. A single wave of the pandemic is expected to end this summer, but it is now very important to agree on what we should do to prevent a next one, Oroszi said, listing tools of defence: vaccination, high vaccination coverage, known virus defence measures, testing, diagnosing, contact tracing.

If we do everything, we may be able to say that the pandemic is over in 2022,

she projected.

Meanwhile, Jakab stressed the importance of individual and social responsibility. “We should all review if we have done everything we could for our own health and safety. If so, we can lay back, but if not, we should think about what more we could do,” he said, advising people to listen to experts as they want the best for the country and its population.

We are at the point when we are running out of registered people, but defeating the virus would require vaccinating 2 to 3 million more people, Szekanecz said, urging people to talk friends and relatives into registering. “Observing the rules and behaving well during opening will be in vain if the other branch of defence does not progress in the meantime,” he said.

Szekanecz also emphasised the importance of keeping to the original agreement and taking the second shot as well. “We need two doses if we already had the disease and also if we have not had it,” he summarised.

Cover photo: Getty Images