COVID-19: 255 new cases over the weekend

The third wave of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has officially ended in Hungary, but in recent days, experts and government officials have increasingly warned about a potential fourth wave. How does this compute?

A total of 255 people were diagnosed with coronavirus infection over the past three days. The 7-day rolling average of new cases dropped to 137.  

As of Sunday nihght, 406 people with COVID-19 were in hospital, with 47 of them on ventilator. This marks a drop of 36 and 4, respectively, over Thursday. (The alignment owes to the lack of weekend reports and the subsequent need of averaging the Monday morning data for three days.)

Here are the same charts but only for the past three weeks.

And the following one, showing 7-day averages, is even more interesting.

The green line shows the ratio of active cases in hospitals, and the orange one shows the ratio of patients requiring mechanical ventilation.

In late August, early September, both lines were high and dropped sharply, because there were a lot of new infections, but not a high number of these people had to be hospitalised. And even those who were admitted were in good enough condition to avoid ventilation.

Then came the school opening in September and it had its impact by October. Lots of COVID-19 patients in hospital, a greater share of active cases in hospital. It was because testing was unable to keep up with the pandemic, and authorities detected only severe cases who ended up in hospital. The green line rose to over 7%, and the orange line also went up as more COVID-19 patients in hospitals had severe symptoms and required artificial ventilation.

And then all of a sudden both lines come to a halt. The number of people hospitalised with coronavirus infection is still on the rise, but a smaller share of the infected need professional care, and the share of patients needing mechanical ventilation also shrinks.

Click on the link below to see what else these charts tell us about hospital capacities.

The calculations in the following charts are based on 7-day averages for a one month period between 13 May and 13 June.

The left-hand chart shows ratios of 7-day averages: [the 7-day average of a given day – 7-day average of the previous day] / 7-day average of the previous day.

The number of active cases has been dropping less than the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals, i.e. when we see increases in the number of recoveries from coronavirus, it’s mostly because GPs are reporting them.

The one on the right shows the ratios of the changes (curves) you see above. The blue line: orange/green, i.e. change in the number of hospitalised COVID-19 patients per change in active cases (with 7-day averages). Red line: blue/orange [(on ventilator, 7-day average) / in hospital (7-day average)]. Wherever the ratios are over 100%, the numerator is larger than the denominator, i.e. the rate at which they discharge Covid patients from hospitals (including those that are reported recovered by GPs) is higher than the rate at which the number of active cases is dropping. This means that an ever smaller percentage of active cases are in hospital.

About 9,500 tests per day were performed over the past three days. The positivity rate was 0.9%.

As regards the charts below, note that when a pandemic wave is on the rise, the shorter the daily averages are (columns), the higher they spike over the longer averages (lines). So, when the virus is spreading more rapidly, the top of these columns will be above the lines, and when a pandemic is in retreat, the columns end below the lines. When they are largely at the same level, there are the the turnarounds in the trend.

The pink line is the 3-day average positivity rate divided by the 21-day positivity rate (right-hand scale). If this rise over 100%, it signals the start of a new wave. When it's under 100%, the pandemic is receding. The jumps indicate dramatic and abrupt changes. These were most likely related to the opening of schools and school breaks.

The chart below shows practically the same as the one above, only on a shorter period, between 1 May and 10 June. The 3-day and 21-day positivity rate averages keep dropping, the orange line settles down between 50% and 60%. As said before, as long as it stays under 100% and the 3-day test positivity average remains lower than the 21-day average of the positivity rate, we're okay. When the orange line starts to rise, there's a change in the trend, but only in this ratio, i.e. the rate of the decline diminishes, the improvement decelerates but it's still an improvement.

The vaccination campaign decelerated over the last few weeks, and it's mostly second doses that are being administered now. Merely 17,383 people got their first jab over the last three days, while nealry 51,000 got their second shot.

The chart below shows the percentage of Hungary's population that received their first and second doses, as well as a 14-day average of these figures. Why 14 days? Because you'll have some degree of protection within 14 to 21 days after the first jab, and full protection 7-10 days after the second one. Hence, the lines give you a better idea of the actual 'immunity' of those that have been inoculated. More accurate figures can be achieved by taking into consideration the efficacy of the different vaccines administered, though.

The chart on the left depicts the same as the one above but only for the past month (13 May - 13 June). The areas show the 14-day averages and the lines the normal percentage of the population vaccinated with the 1st and 2nd doses.

The right-hand chart is a snapshot of the vaccination coverage as of 13 June, i.e. the share of the population that can be considered [partly or fully] protected after their respective first and second jabs.

Cover photo: MTI/Tibor Rosta