U.S. Fed may not breathe sigh of relief despite QE tapering
The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) will release statistics on international reserves and on resident securities on Monday. The KSH will publish September foreign trade data, which should be interesting after August brought a huge deficit.
Tuesday will bring us the inflation data mentioned above, and the KSH will also publish commercial accommodations statistics. Later in the morning, the Finance Ministry will release the October budget balance. Abroad, U.S. producer prices could be interesting as any further rise does not bode well for consumer prices, either.
There will be no noteworthy macroeconomic event in Hungary on Wednesday, while the U.S. will release October inflation. CPI is above 5% as it is, and the Fed has announced tapering its QE programme, higher than expected inflation can also lead to stronger expectations of a rate hike, bringing volatility to stock and FX markets.
Thursday will bring us another central bank release, this time of minutes of the latest ECB meeting In the UK, GDP for the third quarter will be revealed, which is expected to have been affected by the supply crisis.
Industrial data will start off Friday both in Hungary and the euro area, while the KSH will also release September construction statistics. Outside Hungary attention should be paid to one of the major U.S. sentiment indices as the economy slowed in Q3 and analysts believe consumer sentiment can reveal a lot about how Q4 is progressing. In Q3, lower household consumption was the main reason for lower growth.
There will also be other important events this week: the pandemic situation is turning for the worse again in Hungary, and the government has repeatedly hinted at tightening measures. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden will soon have to nominate a Fed chair, an announcement expected to ove markets as well.
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