Russia unexpectedly shelves a casus belli in conflict with Ukraine

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Russia recognizes the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics within the borders where their authorities operate and have jurisdiction, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said on Tuesday, Interfax reported.
orosz harckocsik ukrajna

"These are the borders within which the DPR and LPR leaderships operate and have jurisdiction," Rudenko told reporters in response to Interfax's question.

In a suitably conciliatory tone, Rudenko told the press today that "there are no plans to deploy Russian troops anywhere for the time being," except in the event of an attack on the breakaway territories.

Earlier, Russian officials had said that it was "too early to talk about" what exactly the territory of the breakaway "people's republics" recognised yesterday was, and many Western analysts feared that this would trigger a pretext for war against Ukraine.

Indeed, if Russia had recognised the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as part of the breakaway territories, regions controlled by Ukrainian soldiers would have become part of the "people's republics". This would have allowed the Russians to launch an offensive to repel the 'incursion' of Ukrainian forces, in collaboration with the separatists.

It seems that this casus belli is not being used by the Russians, although it remains unclear what exactly constitutes "separatist-controlled" territory. Defining the exact physical regions will certainly cause further tension between Russia and Ukraine in the longer term.

Sanctions against Russia

European Union sanctions on Russia could including putting hundreds of politicians and officials on black lists, a ban on trading in Russian state bonds and an import and export ban on separatist entities, Reuters cited EU diplomats and officials as saying on Tuesday.

The bloc's ambassadors agreed unanimously at a meeting in Brussels on the principle of imposing sanctions after Russia formally recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

EU foreign ministers will meet later in Paris to agree on the details of the measures, several diplomats told Reuters.

EU officials and diplomats said some EU countries, including Austria, Hungary and Italy, Russia's closest allies in the bloc, would prefer more limited sanctions in response to Putin's move on eastern Ukraine.

Others want to see a fuller, tougher range of measures discussed in recent weeks for the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine to be rolled out now. Baltic, central and eastern European states say tough sanctions should be imposed immediately as Russia is already showing military aggression towards Ukraine.

How we react as European Union will define our character and indeed the future of Europe,

Lithuanian vice minister of foreign affairs Arnoldas Pranckevicius said at a meeting in Brussels.

The sanctions "should not be symbolic. If we want to deter further actions from president Putin, if we want to stop the war from happening, we need to move ahead with serious measures."

A senior EU diplomat told Reuters there was

a whole escalation ladder, starting with Russian individuals and moving up to finance, trade, and eventually energy. So, technically, a lot is possible.

CNN reported that the Commission's proposals will place sanctions on 27 persons and entities including political figures, propagandists, military personnel and financial entities who the EU deems to be linked to “illegal activities” in the regions.

There will also be sanctions for the 351 Russian lawmakers who voted for the recognition and the 11 who proposed it – and the installation of Russian troops.

Germany has taken steps to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said today.

“Now it's up to the international community to react to this one-sided, incomprehensible and unjustified action by the Russian president,” he told reporters in Berlin, adding that it was necessary to “send a clear signal to Moscow that such actions won't remain without consequences.”

United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced sanctions against five Russian banks and three billionaires, after Russia ordered troops into eastern Ukraine.

The PM said Russia's actions amounted to a "renewed invasion" of the country, parts of which were illegally annexed by Russian in 2014.

"Today, the UK is sanctioning the following four five Russian banks: Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank.

"And we are sanctioning three very high net worth individuals: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg, and Igor Rotenberg," said Johnson.

Timchenko is a Russian oligarch and billionaire businessman, the founder and onwer of private investment group, Volga Group. Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg are the co-owners of the SGM group, the largest construction company for gas pipelines and electrical power supply lines in Russia.

"Any assets they hold in the UK will be frozen, the individuals concerned will be banned from travelling here, and we will prohibit all UK individuals and entities from having any dealings with them.

This is the first tranche, the first barrage, of what we are prepared to do: we will hold further sanctions at readiness, to be deployed alongside the United States and the European Union if the situation escalates still further

, concluded Johnson.

Cover photo: Russian Defence Ministry\TASS via Getty Images

 

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