Three reasons why Putin may consider storming the whole of Ukraine

1. The origin of Ukraine and decommunisaton

"Modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia, more precisely, Bolshevik, communist Russia. This process began immediately after the revolution of 1917...

As a result of Bolshevik policy, Soviet Ukraine arose, which even today can with good reason be called 'Vladimir Ilyich Lenin's Ukraine'. He is its author and architect.

"This is fully confirmed by archive documents ...

And what came next is hard not to consider as a threat.

"And now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call decommunisation.

Do you want decommunisation? Well, that suits us just fine. But it is unnecessary, as they say, to stop halfway. We are ready to show you what real decommunisation means for Ukraine.

As the territory of Ukraine was part of Tsarist Russia, and Vladimir Putin's speech was based on Ukraine being an invention of the Communist Party, he was effectively implying that "complete decommunisation" would mean the abolition of Ukraine and its absorption into Russia.

2. Nuclear weapons and NATO bases

Putin stated that Ukraine's membership of NATO is a direct security threat to Russia, and that despite what Western officials are saying now that Ukraine will not become a NATO member in the near future, there is no guarantee that this will be the case in the distant future.

Addressing NATOás eastward expansion, he asked: "Why was it necessary to make an enemy out of us?They didn’t want such a large, independent country as Russia. In this lies the answer to all questions.”

“We clearly understand that in such a scenario, the degree of military threat to Russia will rise cardinally, by multiple times,” Putin said of the potential of Ukraine joining NATO. “If our ancestors heard about this, they would probably not believe it. And we don’t want to believe it. But that’s how it is.”

He also said that Ukraine's military bases are already used by NATO countries and that Ukraine is considering developing nuclear weapons.

According to Putin, Ukraine can now obtain nuclear weapons even more easily than Iran or North Korea, because nuclear weapons were developed in the region during the Soviet era, and this infrastructure is still in place.

Putin added that Ukraine has Tochka-U missile launchers that could be used to launch a nuclear strike on Russian territory.

"We also know that statements have already been made that Ukraine intends to develop its own nuclear weapons, and it is not an empty bravado. Ukraine indeed has Soviet nuclear technologies and delivery systems for such weapons, including aviation and Tochka-U tactical missiles, developed back in the Soviet; their range is over 100 km, but they will develop even longer-range ones, it is only a matter of time. There is groundwork from Soviet era," Putin said.

These threats cannot be neutralised by Russia if only Crimea and the Donetsk region are invaded; in order for Ukraine to abandon its NATO rapprochement and nuclear ambitions, regime change is needed in Ukraine.

Not least, it is important to note that as long as Russian forces remain in eastern Ukraine, support from NATO and other Western powers will only intensify, and Ukraine's rapprochement with the West will only become more assertive.

3. Genocide and search for the guilty

Vladimir Putin also accused the Ukrainian government and military of committing genocide against those who "do not support the coup plotters who came to power in 2014" and of violently assimilating ethnic Russians, among others. He also accused the Ukrainian government of wanting to eliminate the presence of the Orthodox Church.

What is most serious in this respect is that

PUTIN HAS PLEDGED THAT RUSSIA WILL SEEK OUT AND PUNISH THE PEOPLE WHO COMMITTED THESE ALLEGED ATROCITIES AGAINST THE RUSSIAN MINORITY.

As most of these people are in Ukraine (outside the breakaway regions, of course), they can only be tracked down if Russia embarks on a military intervention in the areas controlled by the Ukrainian government.

It is also easy to imagine that the names of these people are on the "death list", the existence of which was leaked a few days ago by several Western intelligence organisations:

"Putin’s genocide allegations are not only groundless. They represent a grotesque distortion of reality that seeks to blame the victims for a war of aggression orchestrated by Moscow that has killed thousands of Ukrainians and forced millions to flee their homes," the Atlantic Council reported.

Summary

Putin's fiery and explicitly bellicose speech was probably delivered in this style to provoke anger in the Russian population against Ukraine. It is still not certain whether this will lead to an open Russian invasion that will include Kiev, but in any case Russian troops have already entered Ukraine and are currently on the territory of the 'breakaway republics'.

Putin also pointed out in his speech that, no matter what he does, the West's aim is to paralyse Russia, so they will get sanctions anyway. The Russian President was therefore very much implying that they have nothing left to lose, and that they may well launch an invasion that would annex most or all of Ukraine.

"They are trying to blackmail us again. They are threatening us again with sanctions, which, by the way, I think they will introduce anyway as Russia's sovereignty strengthens and the power of our armed forces grows. And a pretext for another sanctions attack will always be found or fabricated. Regardless of the situation in Ukraine. There is only one goal - to restrain the development of Russia. And they will do it, as they did before. Even without any formal pretext at all. Just because we exist, and we will never compromise our sovereignty, national interests and our values. I want to say clearly and directly that in the current situation, when our proposals for an equal dialogue on fundamental issues have actually remained unanswered by the United States and NATO, when the level of threats to our country is increasing significantly, Russia has every right to take retaliatory measures to ensure its own security. That is exactly what we will do."

It is likely that a Russian attack could be launched to annex Kiev in the following cases:

• Crippling Western sanctions will be imposed on Russia because of the current "peace mission".
• Ukrainian forces fire on Russian "peacekeepers".
• Russia marks out the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics as regions where Ukrainian troops are present and then launches an offensive.
• Russia is fabricating a pretext for war similar to yesterday's 'Rostov invasion'.

Of course, it is also possible that Vladimir Putin's aggressive action is simply to force Ukraine and the West to the negotiating table, but the chances of that are slim given the speech above.

Cover photo: Kremlin Press Information Centre/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images