Economy 27 June 2022, 8:58am

Rate meeting not the only key event this week in Hungary, Thursday will be most busy too

Portfolio

The monthly policy meeting of the central bank (MNB) will not be the only event worth keeping a close eye on Hungary this week. We'll learn about the current state of public debt, for instance, and inflation data for June are to be released in various countries. In view of the market fluctuations and recession fears of the last few weeks, these data could easily have a market-moving impact.

The week is off to a slow start, with only US durable goods orders on Monday worth mentioning. In Hungary, there are no major data releases or events scheduled for the first day of the week.

Things will get busier and more exciting then. The most important event of the week from a Hungarian perspective is the Monetary Council's interest rate decision on Tuesday. The central bank is facing a greater-than-usual challenge due to the weak forint, and is also to present its usual quarterly forecasts on inflation and economic growth. The former is expected to show an upward and the latter a downward revision by the central bank, especially the 2023 figures.

Early on Wednesday afternoon, the preliminary German inflation data for June will be released, which could trigger a vehement market reaction, and revised US GDP figures will also be published. The latter is particularly important as the US economy has already unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, and we could learn more about the reasons for this or even see the preliminary statistics change.

Thursday will clearly be the busiest day of the week, as important data will be released both in Hungary and abroad. In the morning, the MNB will publish its financial accounts data for the first quarter, which will include a fresh update on the country's debt-to-GDP ratio. Also in the morning, the central bank will announce its usual 1-week deposit tender, where the benchmark interest rate could rise further, followed by the detailed Inflation Report in the morning, after the key updated estimates were published on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) will publish May statistics on industrial producer prices and population changes. Meanwhile, it will also be worth keeping an eye on European data, with the important US inflation indicator, the PCE price index, due out in the early afternoon.

There are still some important data for Friday, with the manufacturing sector's business activity index and the government sector's first-quarter performance. In the meantime, preliminary inflation data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, will be followed by a key economic indicator for the US.

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