Busy week ahead: a flurry of data and events in Hungary and abroad
The beginning of the week may be quiet, as the only thing to highlight on Monday is the German IFO economic sentiment index. Of course, we saw on Friday that a market panic could start at any time in the European banking sector, and Deutsche Bank is the latest to take the spotlight.
On Tuesday, the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) will hold its interest rate decision meeting, and the Monetary Council will also discuss the latest inflation and GDP forecasts. These are unlikely to change significantly, but rather the central bank's assessment of developments in the US and European banking sectors in recent weeks may be more relevant. Following the failure of two mid-sized banks overseas, investors in Europe feared the contagion was spreading, with Credit Suisse requiring a state bailout and takeover, and Deutsche Bank coming under investor scrutiny at the end of last week. The question is how these developments might affect the decisions of the Monetary Council. Also on Tuesday, the balance of payments and household loan statistics for the fourth quarter will be released.
Wednesday could be quiet again, with no macro data to speak of either in Hungary or abroad. On Thursday, the aforementioned central bank inflation report is expected to be released, while the German inflation data is also worth mentioning, as the third revision of the US GDP statistics is not expected to provide much new information.
The last working day of the week will not be boring either, as in Hungary, in addition to the fourth quarterly financial accounts data, foreign trade, vital events, and industrial producer prices statistics will also be released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) on Friday morning. Abroad, the US PCE inflation will be back in February alongside the Eurozone's preliminary inflation data.
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