Economy 9 October 2023, 10:57am

IMF World Economic Outlook in focus this week

Portfolio

In addition to the weekly macro data, we may want to keep an eye on the the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Annual General Meeting in Marrakesh this week. As usual, the organisation will publish its updated economic forecasts. In addition, inflation data will be the main focus, with the latest statistics in the pipeline both in Hungary and the United States, which may even cause market volatility.

The week gets off to an exciting start, as on Monday morning the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) published its latest foreign trade statistics and the MNB releases its latest securities statistics. In the morning, the Ministry of Finance will publish its preliminary general government balance for September, which could also be interesting after last week's raise to the deficit target. Meanwhile, there will be industrial production data from Germany and no trading overseas due to Columbus Day.

Tuesday morning brings us the most important data of the week, as the Central Statistical Office (KSH) is set to publish its September inflation statistics. Based on analysts' expectations, there was a further significant fall in the rate of price increases, largely due to base effects, with the figure falling as low as around 12%. The announcement could even have an impact on the forint exchange rate, as the inflation outlook influences the Hungarian currency.

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) may also make Tuesday an exciting day. The IMF is going to publish its latest autumn macroeconomic forecast in time for its Annual General Meeting, which will also reveal, among other things, how the Hungarian economy is currently perceived.

Wednesday will bring revised German inflation data, while the U.S. industrial producer price index and the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting could also be of interest. The latter in particular may be worth watching as the rise in yields in recent weeks has reduced the likelihood of further rate hikes overseas.

The minutes of the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting will be published the following day, Thursday, so investors will soon have new information on the outlook of the two key central banks of developed countries and what further action we can expect from them. Moreover, shortly after the ECB minutes, another important piece of data that could set the tone is the U.S. inflation statistics, which could also have an impact on fixed-income and FX markets.

There is still some data for the last working day of the week, with the release of detailed industry statistics in Hungary and the MNB's preliminary balance sheet on Friday. Important data - inflation and foreign trade - are to be released also in China early in the day.

Cover photo: Getty Images