Hungary's ruling Fidesz party could win by a landslide, Tisza Party seen as runner-up in EP election

On Friday morning, Medián published its national survey before the EP elections, which shows, among other things, that the Fidesz-KDNP list has the highest support, with half of the "sure" voters (50%) planning to vote for it, the second most popular is Péter Magyar's Tisza Party, with 27% of the "sure" voters, and the third most popular is the DK-MSZP-Parliamentary Dialogue list, with 9% of the "sure" voters, writes 24.hu.

On Friday morning, Medián published its national survey before the EP elections, which shows, among other things, that

• the Fidesz-KDNP list has the highest support, with half of the "decided" voters (50%) planning to vote for it,
• the second most popular is Péter Magyar's Tisza Party, with 27% of the "decided" voters, and
• the third most popular is the Democratic Coalition (DK)-Socialist Party-Dialogue ('Párbeszéd) list, with 9% of the "decided" voters, reported 24.hu.

According to Medián, the parties' mobilisation seems to be successful: more than four-fifths of the voters of the main participants in the EP elections say they will definitely go to the polls on 9 June. Although such statements should not be taken too seriously, they indicate that a high turnout can be expected.

The number of seats for Fidesz-KDNP could be at least 11, but this number ultimately depends on whether the party lists that approach the 5% threshold but do not reach it, i.e. the lists of far-right nationalist party Our Homeland ('Mi Hazánk') and the mock party the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP), eventually get into the European Parliament. If neither of them does, Fidesz will have 13 seats, if one of them does, the number of seats will be 12.

According to Medián, forecasting is complicated by a relatively high number of uncertainties, for example, the fact that even among those who consider themselves to be decided voters, 25% cannot or do not want to say which party list they will vote for. Of the latter, 52% can be described as opposition and only 24% as pro-government.

Methodology
The national survey is representative of the population aged 18 and over, based on a random sample of 1,500 people interviewed by telephone between 31 May and 5 June.

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