Economy 19 September 2024, 4:15pm

European new passenger car registrations collapse in August

Portfolio

August was one of the weakest month in new passenger car registrations in the European Union already in 2023, but the August 2024 figures show a dramatic decline even compared to that month, according to the latest statistics by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) published on Thursday. Total new EU car registrations dropped by almost a fifth in annual terms, with battery-electric vehicle registrations down 44%, plug-in hybrids showing a 22% drop and hybrid-electric vehicle registrations growing a modest 6.6%. The slackening market was also palpable in Hungary, although the decline in volumes was smaller than the EU average. The big loser of the month was Stellantis, the second largest player among manufacturers, with sales down by almost a third.

Dreadful performance in August

In August 2024, new EU car registrations saw a sharp decrease (-18.3%) with negative results across the region’s four major markets: double-digit losses were witnessed in Germany (-27.8%), France (-24.3%), and Italy (-13.4%), with the Spanish market declining by 6.5%. New passenger car registrations in Hungary declined by 9.4% to 8,111 units.

Eight months into 2024, new car registrations increased by 1.4%, almost reaching 7.2 million units. Spain (+4.5%) and Italy (+3.8%) showed positive but modest performance. On the other hand, the French and the German markets saw their results stagnate (-0.5% and -0.3% respectively). Hungary recorded a 8.2% yr/yr growth to nearly 80,000 units.

The chart below shows the number of new passenger car registrations in Central and Eastern Europe in the eighth month of 2023 and 2024, as well as their yr/yr change. Poland was the only one that did not record a yr/yr increase in August.

New EU car registrations by power source

In August, battery-electric cars accounted for 14.4% of the EU car market, down from 21% the previous year. This represents the fourth consecutive month of decline this year, contrasting sharply with the almost consistent month-on-month increases last year.

Plug-in hybrid car registrations were also marked by a sizeable 22.3% decline.

The combined share of petrol and diesel cars also dropped slightly to 44.3%, down from 45.1%.

The share of HEV's (47.1%) remains a lot higher in Hungary than in the EU, with the combined share of petrol and diesel cars only at 37.3%.

The number of newly registered petrol cars showed a 17.1% yr/yr decline in the EU, while diesel car registrations plunged 26.4%. The largest (and only) annual growth (6.6%) was observed in the registration of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs).

However, it is clear that there are countries, especially in our region, where electric and hybrid cars are finding it harder to gain a foothold. In Bulgaria, for example, more than 92% of newly registered passenger cars had internal combustion engine in august, but it was also high in Slovenia (75.6%), Czechia (68.3%), Slovakia (65.4%), and Croatia (60.3%). In comparison, the Nordic countries typically see figures below or around 30% (22.1% in Finland, 21.3% in the Netherlands and 30.6% in Sweden in August).

Norway remains the most stellar performer in the EU in this regard, with merely 2% of newly registered vehicles equipped with petrol or diesel engines in August.

A continuous trend of shrinking market share for battery electric cars in the EU sends an extremely worrying signal to industry and policymakers. European auto manufacturers, united in ACEA, therefore call on the EU institutions to come forward with urgent relief measures before new CO2 targets for cars and vans come into effect in 2025. Additionally, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association urges the European Commission to bring forward the CO2 regulation reviews for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, currently scheduled for 2026 and 2027 respectively, to 2025.

Hybrid electric vehicles

Hybrid-electric vehicles are the only vehicle type that saw growth in August, with car registrations rising by 6.6% to 201,552 units. Three of the four largest markets for this segment recorded gains: Spain (+12.6%), France (+12.5%), and Italy (+2.5%), while Germany (-0.1%) remained stable. The hybrid-electric market share reached 31.3%, up from 24% in August 2023.

In Hungary, 47.1% of the newly registered cars were HEVs last month, with only Lithuania and Greece higher in this particular ranking.

New HEV registrations in Hungary were practically flat (+0.1%) yr/yr at 3,818 cars. Hungary finished in the bottom third of this ranking last month.

Battery-electric vehicles

In August 2024, registrations of battery-electric (BEV) cars dropped by 43.9% to 92,627 units (compared to 165,204 the same period last year), with their total market share slipping to 14.4% from 21% a year before. This was driven by the spectacular drop in the two biggest markets for BEV cars: Germany (-68.8%) and France (-33.1%).

From January to August, 902,011 new battery-electric cars were registered, representing 12.6% of the market.

The countries that were at the bottom of the petrol/diesel ranking above are now at the top. Of the Nordic countries, Denmark (54.8%) had the highest share of purely electric cars in total new registrations, but Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands also had one in three new cars registered that were fully electric.

At the bottom of the list are the countries of our region, with hardly any BEVs sold Bulgaria (94), but Slovenia (183) and Slovakia (159) did not excel either. The big markets of Italy and Spain have not caught on to electric cars. In Hungary, 518 BEVs were newly registered in August, a share of 6.4%.

After soaring by nearly 64% yr/yr in July, new BEV registrations in Hungary edged up by only 8.8% in August, against a 43.9% drop in the EU. Note that the surge in Cyprus and Croatia marks the registration of only 77 and 204 purely electric cars, respectively.

Norway is often quoted as a prime example of going electric in driving, where the share of EVs in total new registrations remains brutally high. In August, the share was 94.3%, meaning that (more than) nine out of ten cars newly registered in Norway were purely electric. Plug-in hybrids represented a mere 1.4% of newly registered cars and the share for hybrid electric vehicles was also only 2.2% last month. The petrol and diesel shares were 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively.

Plug-in hybrids

Plug-in hybrid car registrations saw a decrease (-22.3%) last month, with declines recorded in all their major markets. In August, plug-in hybrids accounted for 7.1% of the total car market, down from 7.4% last year, with 45,590 units sold.

In Hungary, the share of PHEVs in total new passenger car sales was 9.1%, up considerably from 5.5% in July.

A total of 737 PHEVs were newly registered in Hungary in August, which marks a whopping 43.9% yr/yr jump.

New passenger car registrations in Hungary by fuel type

A total of 8,111 new passenger cars were registered in Hungary in August this year, 9.4% fewer than in the same month of 2023. Most new cars were HEVs (47.1%), followed by petrol (25.5%), diesel (11.8%), PHEV (9.1%), and BEV (6.4%).

The evolution of these shares can be seen in the chart below. The race is clearly between HEVs and petrol cars, with the former coming out on top steadily since last July. The share of HEVs was also higher between November 2022 and May 2023.The jump in the share of PHEVs is odd, we'll need to see where this is going, but we suspect it's just a fluke.

As for the evolution of the share of the three main power sources (petrol, diesel, HEV) in Hungary's new passenger car registrations take a look at the three graphs below. The diminishing share of petrol engines year by year is evident, despite the fluctuations. The uptick for three month in a row might have been a warning sign if it weren't for the same pattern observed in the previous two years, but the share already dropped for the second month in a row now.

The share of diesel cars in new registrations has been showing greater fluctuation but the decline remains clear, albeit not as sharp by far as in the case of petrol-fuelled cars.

The share of HEVs has never been as high as in March for as long as the date series goes back (Jan2022), but it slumped back to 45.8% in April and further to 40.6% in May, only to pick up in July and further in August. Again, this also fits into the pattern of the previous two years.

There is also a slow overall increase in the share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in new passenger car registrations, with March standing out in the statistics. The May print was the second highest since January 2022, but it was followed by three lower figures, which can be increasingly interpreted as a bad omen.

No clear trend can be seen at plug-in hybrids, but if we had to pick one we'd stay it has been stagnation at best, only the August print is an enigma, we need more data to see where this is going.

It is worth nothing that the government launched an electric car subsidy scheme earlier this year, which has helped boost EV sales. As the scheme has not yet expired, it is expected to continue to have a positive impact on domestic EV sales for the rest of the year. However, green licence plate rules have been tightened in Hungary as of 1 September, which might dampen EV purchases to some extent. The EU's additional duty on Chinese EV manufacturers does not help the spread of electric vehicles, either.

Hungary and its regional peers - August

We can and should and do compare Hungary's performance also in regional terms, both in respect of the actual number of cars sold (by fuel type) and the annual change in new registrations. Here we go:

Hungary and its regional peers - January-August

In the first eight months of 2024, new passenger car registrations grew by 8.2% in Hungary to 79,976 units, including a 53.5% surge in BEV registrations (5,753), a 24.8% expansion at HEVs (36.345), and a 7.1% increase at PHEVs (4,080). Meanwhile, diesel car sales rose 4.6% to 9,544 units, while 12.7% fewer petrol-fuelled cars (24,144) were registered than in August 2023.