Barclays predicts forint strengthening if Viktor Orbán loses 2026 election
As the elections approach, economists are increasingly focusing their attention on who is likely to win next spring. Government economic policy has a significant impact on the economic and financial situation. This is the subject of the latest analysis by Barclays.
“Although Viktor Orbán has won four consecutive elections since 2010, the Tisza Party's comfortable lead in the polls suggests that there is a realistic chance of a change of government in next April's election,” wrote Barclays experts Sheryl Dong and Marek Raczko in their analysis.
According to Barclays, a Tisza government led by Péter Magyar would help strengthen the forint, as it could pave the way for the release of funds frozen by the European Union.
This is one of the first analyses to outline a specific investment strategy for preparing for political change, according to Bloomberg – something that was considered an unlikely scenario until last year.
The departure of Orbán's euro-sceptic government could provide a favorable backdrop for the forint and Hungarian government bonds, similar to how the market reacted after the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections, Dong and Raczko wrote.
Bloomberg highlights that the forint has already outperformed its regional peers this year, reaching an 11-month high on Monday at 394.8 forints per euro.
Cover photo (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images
