Economy 14 October 2025, 3:44pm

IMF thinks even 3% growth will remain a dream for Hungary

Portfolio

According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday, Hungary's GDP growth rate could accelerate from 0.6% this year to 2.1% in 2026. However, both figures fall short of previous expectations. The organisation's experts anticipate a slightly more favourable inflation trajectory than previously anticipated, yet the rate of price increases is not expected to reach the upper limit of the central bank's target range of 4% by the end of the year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) on Tuesday afternoon,

slashing its 2025 GDP growth estimate for Hungary to 0.6% from 1.4% projected in April.

This is broadly in line with the consensus among analysts. Following a disappointing second quarter, the majority of analysts now believe that a growth rate of around 0.5% is realistic. In other words, while the downgrade is not unexpected, it is disappointing nonetheless.

Even more disheartening is the fact that the IMF has also revised its 2026 forecast downward, reducing its GDP growth estimate to 2.1% from 2.6% in April In other words,

they do not expect Hungary to get even close to a 3% growth rate next year.

This is rather pessimistic, given that analysts now estimate the possible economic growth rate in 2026 to be between 2.5% and 3%. They believe that consumption could be the strongest driver, but that investments and exports may also slowly start to pick up.

The IMF's key estimates for Hungary (%)
	2025			2026
	2025. April	2025. October	Change	2025. April	2025. October	Change
GDP	1.4	0.6	-0.8	2.6	2.1	-0.5
Inflation (annual average)	4.9	4.5	-0.4	3.6	3.5	-0.1
Inflation (end of period)	4.4	4.1	-0.3	3.4	3.1	-0.3
Current account balance (% of GDP)	1.0	1.2	0.2	1.1	0.9	-0.2
Unemployment	4.6	4.3	-0.3	4.2	4.2	0.0
Sources: IMF, Portfolio

According to the IMF, inflation could average 4.5% in 2025, while the rate of price increases could slow to 3.5% next year. The forecast for the end of this is 4.1% and 3.1% for December next year.

The IMF projects Hungary's current account balance to show a surplus of 1.2% of GDP this year, before declining to 0.9% next year. Compared to April, this year's figure has been revised down slightly, while next year's has been revised up by the same amount. Regarding the unemployment rate, the IMF's pessimistic predictions from earlier in the year do not appear to have been realised, so a lower rate is now anticipated than was expected six months ago.

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