Preparations for the Trump-Putin meeting will also affect investments

On Thursday evening, US President Donald Trump announced that he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin in Budapest within two weeks. The exact date is not yet known, but US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will begin preparations for the summit this week. News related to this is expected to dominate global market sentiment in the coming days.

Even with the possible end of the war in Ukraine, there are still some "hot topics" worth keeping an eye on. On Friday, there were reports about problems at three smaller banks in the US, but the potential losses do not appear to pose a systemic risk at this stage. In addition, news of the US-China tariff war could also have a significant impact on sentiment. The US president announced a week and a half ago that he would impose a 100% extra tariff on all Chinese products from November 1, and although tensions have eased somewhat since then,

investors may become increasingly nervous as the date approaches if no agreement is reached.

In other words, there will be plenty to watch out for this week besides the incoming macro data. For now, it is unclear which statistics will be published overseas amid the government shutdown.

By the time this article is published, the seven most important Chinese data points will already be known, as preliminary third-quarter GDP statistics were released early Monday morning, along with September data on industry and retail sales. In addition, the Chinese central bank held a meeting to decide on interest rates.

From a Hungarian perspective, Tuesday will be the most significant day of the week, as the Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) will hold its interest rate decision meeting. The event could be particularly interesting after Minister of National Economy Márton Nagy said two weeks ago at the Portfolio Budapest Economic Forum conference that he believes the time has come for an interest rate cut and that a lower real interest rate would be sufficient. According to experts, the central bank is unlikely to yield for the time being and will maintain the base rate at 6.5%. The only question is whether there will be any slight change in communication or whether the MNB will continue to emphasize a cautious and patient approach in line with the sustained interest rate.

Even the slightest change in the central bank's communication could have a significant impact on the forint, which is why

investors are paying close attention to every word uttered by Governor Mihály Varga.

The Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) will publish the latest unemployment figures on Wednesday morning, while the Ministry of National Economy (NGM) will release detailed data on public finances for September in the morning. Neither set of data is likely to have a significant impact on the market, although investors are paying close attention to the budget situation. The preliminary data is already known, however, and the government is now only releasing the details.

This marks the end of the week domestically, but there will be no respite on the international markets. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and home sales statistics are due to be released in the US, but the only obstacle could be the government shutdown, which means it is uncertain whether the data will be released.

However, Friday will definitely be a busy day, even though it is not a working day in Hungary. In the morning, it will be worth paying attention to the European purchasing managers' indices, while in the afternoon,

US inflation data will certainly be released,

as it has already been announced that it will be published even if the government shutdown continues.

At the same time, it is worth emphasizing once again that the Rubio-Lavrov meeting and statements regarding Chinese tariffs could have a much greater market impact in the coming days than the above.

Cover photo (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images