Hungarian economy got off to a gloomy start in the last quarter of the year

The high monthly foreign trade surpluses that have been characteristic for a long time are by no means the result of Hungary's export offensive. In fact, due to weak external demand and the challenges facing the European automotive industry, Hungary's exports are performing poorly, while imports are performing even worse. Despite relatively strong consumer spending, the relentless decline in investment is reducing the economy's demand for imports.

These processes have resulted in sluggish exports and imports, but exports are still slightly higher. Therefore, the country's foreign trade surplus can grow slightly overall.

We expect changes from month to month in these processes, so that an upturn in foreign trade will finally signal the revitalisation of the economy.

However, this did not happen in October; in fact, the figures were weaker than expected.

According to data published by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) on Monday, export volumes decreased by 3.1% in the first month of the fourth quarter, while imports increased by 1.1% compared to the same period the previous year. Furthermore, export performance was so weak that even the decline was mitigated by exports of energy carriers (most of which were just transiting the country). Meanwhile, exports of machinery, transport equipment and processed products fell significantly. October's export volume represents a three-year low.

This suggests that industrial production did not begin to pick up towards the end of 2025. Although these are only preliminary figures for the last quarter, they increase the likelihood that GDP growth will fall short of expectations.

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