Hungary PV capacity jumps in September
It was already clear from the 1,022 MW solar capacity growth figure for the first half of the year that in 2023 the annual expansion record set in 2022 (+1,063 MW) will be broken. In the three months passed since then, installers and grid companies have added another 368 MW, so the total installed capacity of small and large domestic PV plants was already close to 5,407 MW on 1 October, as the detailed data confirm an earlier announcement of the Ministry of Energy.
Of the 202 MW of capacity added in September, 51 MW is attributed to household-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems, bringing the total installed capacity to nearly 2,131 MW. The installed capacity of larger PV generators (above 50 kW) increased by 152 MW to 3,276 MW. The number of the former increased by 5,368 to 236,676 units, the latter by 13 to 3,163 units.
The statistics also reveal that, thanks to the sunny summer weather, large solar power plants in the country operated last month at the highest utilisation rates ever recorded in September.. The 21.28% utilisation rate, which is close to summer figures, made the previous record of 20.47% in September 2018 a thing of the past.
Thanks in part to high utilisation, large solar power plants already accounted for 17.2% of domestic electricity generation and 14.3% of consumption in September.
Capacity growth in the first three quarters of this year is already close to 1,390 MW, and if the pace of September is maintained, and perhaps even slightly increased in the fourth quarter, then the rate of expansion in 2023 could reach or exceed 2,000 MW, as we previously expected, and by the end of 2023 the total capacity could reach 6,000 MW. However, this, i.e. maintaining the pace, but especially accelerating it, will not be an easy task.
This September's 202 MW growth is one of the strongest monthly figures in the history of the Hungarian solar plant boom since the early 2010s. An even better result was last achieved in March 2023 with a monthly increase of nearly 310 MW (between 1 March and 1 April). This is also the largest monthly capacity increase ever.
The prospects for the end-of-year solar plant installation rush are hampered by the fact that the cold weather is less conducive to the work, and that the industry has already started to run out of large volumes of household-scale (HMKE) orders, which came in two waves last year (the summer utility tariff hike and the temporary feed-in stop introduced in the autumn), and demand has fallen significantly since last autumn.
There have been some good news for households contemplating going solar: (i) the cabinet has in the end given up its plan to switch every household with solar panels on their roof from an annual-based balance accounting to a monthly accounting regime, (ii) the feed-in suspension will be lifted in most of the country on 1 January 2024, and (iii) a new tender will be launched for families in the gross accounting scheme willing to add storage to their PV systems. All this, however, is unlikely to boost applications to previous levels even in the medium term.
However, for large, industrial-scale solar parks, the grid connection capacities already allocated suggest that, in addition to the grid connection problems that still exist, further significant growth is likely in the coming years.
The outlook is mixed for the market for off-grid, so-called reverse power controlled solar PV systems installed by companies to partially cover their own consumption, as the regulatory environment has become more favourable than before, but the normalisation of electricity prices in the market is cooling the market.
In the course of updating the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) this year, the government raised the target for solar capacity from 6,500 MW to 12,000 MW by 2030, which is not yet final. To meet this target, the installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic producers will have to increase by an average of less than 1,000 MW per year by the end of the decade.
Cover photo: Shutterstock
