Huge differences between heating seasons - how does a harsher winter affect Hungarian inflation?

The winters of 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 were extremely mild: according to long-term data from the National Meteorological Service (OMSZ), average winter temperatures were 2.8°C above the long-term average for the 1991-2020 period three years ago and 3.7°C above the long-term average for two years ago.

But in the heating season 2024-25, we have seen much colder weather.

Last winter's average temperature was already 1.6°C at national level, “only” 1.2°C above the long-term average. This means that it was almost 2°C colder than in the last two winters - a marked difference in consumption figures.

So after those mild winters, heating was needed again - and lots of it.

In recent years, households have been gradually switching to electric heating solutions, mainly heat pump systems. This phenomenon is partly driven by regulatory incentives and partly by the electrification trend. These systems increase electricity consumption substantially, which is further exacerbated by the fact that there are fewer sunny days in winter, so solar panels produce much less energy - hence the demand on the grid.

As a result, residential electricity consumption fluctuated significantly in the first three months of 2025 compared to the five-year monthly average. In January, consumption was 1362 GWh, 9.8% above the usual level for this time of year. In February, consumption continued to rise, reaching 1183 GWh, already 14% above the five-year average. However, March saw a sharp turnaround, with monthly electricity consumption falling to 923 GWh, 13.8% below the average - a drop that is clearly visible in the graph:

Looking at the trends for the same months in the two years preceding last year's heating season (November to April 2025), the increase in residential electricity consumption in the first months of 2025 is also clearly visible:

• In January, consumption was 7.1% higher than in 2023 and 6.8% higher than in 2024.
• In February, the gap was even larger: consumption was 15.9% higher than in 2023 and 13% higher than in 2024.
• In March, however, there was a sharp turnaround: consumption fell sharply, by 13.63% compared to 2023 and by 10.46% compared to 2024.

The latter drop is not a coincidence, as HungaroMet showed that the average temperature in the first month of spring was 8.0°C, 2.2°C above the long-term average - the 10th warmest March since 1901.

It should also be noted that as spring approaches, households equipped with solar panels (and, fortunately, energy storage) can produce more and more energy for their own use as the sunshine increases. This also means that the amount of electricity bought from the grid at this time of year is reduced, which, combined with the lower use of warmer weather, underpins the drop of almost 261 GWh between February and March.

And what about natural gas?

Although electrification is gaining momentum, the vast majority of the domestic population still uses natural gas for heating. Therefore, the colder weather has also had an impact on gas consumption statistics - although not so clearly.

While natural gas consumption in January was 10.3% lower than the five-year average at 593,000 m³, in February it was 15.1% above the average at 561,000 m³. In March, however, consumption fell again, by 16.6% below the five-year monthly average (375,000 m³).

Similar to electricity consumption, looking at the data for the previous three years, residential consumption of natural gas has evolved in the following way:

• In January 2025, consumption was 2.8% lower than in 2024, but 20% higher than in early 2023, when the winter was particularly mild.
• In February, the differences were even more marked: this year's consumption was 53.1% higher than in 2024 and 17.6% higher than in 2023.
• Although electricity consumption fell significantly in March, this was not the case for natural gas: consumption increased by 2.3% compared to 2023, and although it fell by 16.2% compared to 2024, it remained high compared to previous years.

This means that the

total consumption of natural gas in the 2024/2025 heating season was almost 1 billion m³ higher than in the previous heating season.

Total residential gas consumption rose by 17%, mainly due to cooler weather in September-October and in February and April (no consumption data available for this period), they added.

This can be seen on the revenue side: the first months of 2025 saw a spectacular surge in electricity sales revenue for the universal service provider. In January, revenues exceeded the same period of the previous year by more than HUF 1.1 billion and in February by more than HUF 2.5 billion,

representing increases of 8.2% and 21.2% in January and February respectively (almost identical in March)

- no such figures are available for natural gas.

On a quarterly basis - i.e. taking into account the first three months of the year - the revenue from electricity sold under the universal service was 4.2% (HUF 1.68 billion) higher compared to 2023, and 10% (HUF 4 billion) higher compared to the first quarter of 2024.

Overall, although the reduced residential energy prices are still in force, the significant increase in consumption has led to an increase in the cost of energy for many households (in proportion to consumption). The latter, by crossing the consumption thresholds, may even have led to some people being excluded from the reduced price band and having to pay the “market” price for their consumption. The increased overheads may also be reflected in the inflation figures, but it should be added that the reduced prices paid for the quantities purchased in the universal service have a limited impact on the final figures. Moreover, in the statistics on inflation of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), household energy is given only a small weight, roughly 4%. So, as long as the feed-in tariffs remain, we cannot expect that the amount of gas and electricity consumed will increase the inflation rate significantly.

Cover photo (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images