Wednesday is the last trading day when investors still have a window of opportunity to make arbitrage gains on Egis, taking advantage of the margin between the market price and Servier's HUF 28,000 bid. Taking the fact into consideration that transactions at the Budapest Stock Exchange take 3 days to complete, the current opportunity translates into over 10% risk-free annualised return. Based on the above, we see a high likelihood of the Egis share price turning south in Thursday's trading.
There are only a few more days to go until 5th November, when the window of opportunity closes for Egis shareholders to offer their stakes to Servier, a major shareholder that recently made a bid at HUF 28,000 per share. Those interested in the taking the opportunity should take the following steps:
Give your broker a transfer order
Request proof of the transfer from your broker
Fill out a shareholder statement and send it along with proof of the transfer to KBC Securities where Servier has an account.
The last date when the transfer order can be made is 5th November, although you may not want to leave it till the last possible day.
Those who are not holding Egis shares at the moment but would like to benefit from the HUF 28,000 share price can still acquire shares at the Budapest Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Taking the 3-day completion of transactions into consideration, the opportunity will no longer be there tomorrow.
Egis is currently traded at HUF 27,775 per share, a price level where it still makes business sense to buy the shares as the annualized return for the few days to 5th November is over 10%, and free of risk, to boot. Our calculations are based on the assumption that shareholders get their payout on the latest possible date of 12th November.
Based on the above, we see a high likelihood of the Egis share price taking a downward turn tomorrow when the arbitrage opportunity is no longer there. This could be supported by the fact that number of shares Servier will be able to acquire is unknown (the bidder is required to inform shareholders in 2 days after the bidding deadline), and the length of the potential squeeze-out is also an unknown factor.
Charting is displayed using TradingView's technology, a platform, where you can build advanced charts,
spot upcoming trends in the stock screener, and find inspiration in multiple trading ideas