ANALYST VIEW - Hungary Mol shares could be worth 16% more than currently
Erste explains that the upgrade is due to a stronger industry environment than previously expected and the estimated dividend payout. Erste expects higher refining margins in the future, which will be positive for the company's earnings, while the analysts believe that the oil price will reach $90 per barrel this year and $100 per barrel next year.
Refining margins will fall slightly after being exceptionally high in 2022 and 2023, the bank estimates, adding that they could still remain much higher than in the pre-2022 period. European TTF gas prices are projected at €35/MWh this year and €30/MWh next year. Erste expects a slight improvement in the petrochemical segment from the second quarter onwards.
In addition, Mol has recently updated its strategy, which now includes a greater focus on renewable energy and waste management, while traditional businesses such as Exploration & Production, Refining & Marketing should also see improved profits, according to Erste.
Mol expects USD 11.6 billion of investment and USD 16.9 billion of Clean CCS EBITDA over the period 2024-2030, which Erste believes is realistic, and the analyst's EBITDA estimate is slightly higher, at around USD 19 billion for the period.
This estimate, even according to Mol's calculations, allows for a normal dividend of HUF 170 per share per year, based on Erste's estimate. However, Erste considers it conceivable that a higher or even extraordinary dividend could be paid.
The company pays HUF 250 per share from last year's profits, of which HUF 150 is the normal dividend and HUF 100 the extraordinary dividend. This is expected to be paid in early June. Earlier, Erste considered it possible that Mol would pay a dividend close to last year's HUF 354, but management has proposed a lower dividend.
2025-ben az Erste becslése szerint 300 forintra nőhet az osztalék részvényenként. erste thinks that mol could pay a dividend of huf 300 per share In 2025.
Mol shares gained 1.9% in the morning and 4.9% this year.
erste's new huf 3,450 target price offers a 16% upside potential compared to the current share price.
