Viktor Orbán does not veto, EU accession talks with Ukraine can begin

The European Council has decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, announced Charles Michel, President of the European Council, which brings together the leaders of the Member States, on his X-(formerly Twitter-)account. He also announced that Georgia would be granted candidate status.

The EU will open negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina once it has reached the necessary level of compliance with the membership criteria. The Council has asked the committee to report back by March on the decision taken, the politician added.

The European Council has decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine & Moldova. granted candidate status to Georgia. And the EU will open negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina once the necessary degree of compliance with the membership criteria is reached and #EUCO

— Charles (Michel) December 14, 2023

Earlier, as the sole leader of a member state, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had promised to veto the start of accession negotiations, but

he backed down by not taking part in the vote and leaving the room.

Speaking to the press on his arrival at the summit, he said that since Ukraine had not yet fulfilled four of the seven conditions, he did not see the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine as feasible.

In a Facebook video, he called the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine a completely pointless and irrational decision.

But 26 other member states insisted on it, so we decided that if 26 of them decided to do it, they should go their own way,

the Prime Minister said.

So technically Hungary did not participate in the vote, when it can legally transfer its vote to another country. On paper, that country must vote according to Hungary's position, so it is not yet clear whether the alternate country was ultimately authorised to cast a vote in Hungary's place.

Perfectly legal decision, with a little twist

On the spot, the only thing the authorities said was that "there was no vote against". This raises interesting questions, as in principle a unanimous decision is required, and abstentions are not supposed to count. However, if it did not take part in the decision, it could be an absentee ballot, but only with the agreement of 26 member states.

In such cases, the Hungarian Prime Minister will have to sign the final Council decision, in which he will in principle have to confirm that accession negotiations with Ukraine can start.

"It was a pre-agreed and constructive step", an EU diplomat told Portfolio on the spot.

Other opinions, however, argue that the Hungarian government's decision is already legally unchallengeable if they later want to claim that the Prime Minister did not vote for the move. As an EU diplomat told Politico,

If someone is absent, they are absent. Legally, this is perfectly valid.

Finally, the most accurate interpretation was given by Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in his press conference at the EU summit: „In fairness to Prime Minister Orbán, he made his case, he made it very strongly. He disagrees with this decision and he’s not changing his opinion in that sense, but essentially decided not to use the veto power, His view was that he did his best to persuade the 28 member states that this wasn’t the best course of action," the Irish premier said, adding, “But if the 26 firmly held this view” he wouldn’t block it.

At the briefing, he said that he is confident that Orbán will voice his opinion, "he will not be shy, we can be sure of that, and he will explain the reasons behind his decision".

Still, Varadkar injected a note of realism into the discussion, adding there would be “loads” of votes yet to come on the issue, offering Hungary future veto opportunities, as Politico reports. 

Diplomats from several countries have confirmed to Portfolio that Politico's reports are correct: it was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who suggested that Orbán should leave the room so that all other member states could vote unanimously, and several other national leaders have also voiced the same argument. It was reportedly agreed earlier that if there were no other member states opposed to Ukraine's accession, the Hungarian PM would leave the room for the vote. Many recalled that Viktor Orbán had earlier had breakfast with the leaders of Germany and France.

Putting the responsibility on others

Speaking to Hungarian journalists on the occasion of the EU summit, the PM's political director Balázs Orbán stressed that Hungary's position is clear: it does not consider Ukraine ready for EU negotiations, and therefore proposed not to start the talks, MTI reports.

However, he said, 26 EU member states have a different opinion, and after the negotiations Hungary decided to leave the chamber and did not take part in the vote. By doing so, Hungary did not prevent the decision from being taken, but it does not take responsibility for this misguided decision, he underlined.

Ukraine unlikely to become a member for more than 10 years

Now that accession negotiations can begin, they will certainly start a negotiation with Kyiv that will last for almost a decade or more. During this time, there are many problematic issues to be addressed with Ukraine, as well as many reforms to be implemented, ranging from the implementation of agri-environmental standards, to anti-corruption measures, to bringing the judicial system into line with EU standards.

Meanwhile, in the EU, institutional reform is likely to be needed, as Ukraine's accession would mean it would be eligible for the largest share of cohesion funds and would account for a fifth of the EU's total agricultural area. However, there is likely to be plenty of scope for rethinking these issues in the next seven years, even up to 2030, according to the Commission's calculations. However, all experts expect a fierce conflict between member states, the EP and the European Commission after the EU elections next June.

After the night shift

In the meantime, after overnight negotiations, it was also revealed that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán did not vote for EU aid to Ukraine. This comes as no surprise, as it was already known that Budapest was stubbornly opposed.

Earlier, a package worth €50 billion was put together in Brussels to be delivered to Kyiv. Other European leaders said that all European countries except the Hungarian government supported the package and would return to the issue in January.

Cover photo: EU