Economy 8 June 2021, 11:14am

COVID-19: Pandemic keeps receding in Hungary

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Over the past 24 hours, Hungarian authorities diagnosed 117 people with SARS-CoV-2 and 17 people died of coronavirus-related diseases, the official government portal koronavirus.gov.hu reported on Tuesday. The death toll is 29,883, and the 30,000 mark is certain to be hit.

With 117 new cases, the total number of infections grows to 806,206, according to official data.

17 people died of coronavirus-related diseases over the past 24 hours, taking the total number of COVID-19 deaths to 29,883. While the situation has been improving, Hungary cannot avoid hitting the 30,000 mark before the pandemic is eliminated.

The number of people with COVID-19 in hospitals and on ventilators dropped further to 591 and 63, respectively.

The left-hand chart below shows the number of people with coronavirus infection in hospital and on ventilator, as well as the 3-day average of these figures. Over the past week, the number of people infected with coronavirus in hospitals dropped by 246 and there are 27 fewer of them on ventilator currently.

The right-hand chart shows the ratio of those in hospital to active cases and those on ventilator to those in hospital. The general observation is that the former figure has been dropping throughout May but there seemed to be stagnation at the end of the month, and the other ratio has been hovering between 11 and 13% last month. After a jump to 11.1% from 10.4% last Thursday, the ratio rose and clung to around 11% again and the 3-day average is also back at around 11.0%.

Here are the same figures, only on a longer term and with 7-day averages.

The calculations in the following charts are based on 7-day averages.

The first chart shows ratios of 7-day averages: [the 7-day average of a given day – 7-day average of the previous day] / 7-day average of the previous day.

The number of active cases has been dropping less than the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals, i.e. when we see increases in the number of recoveries from coronavirus, it’s mostly because GPs are reporting them.

The following chart, shows the ratios of the changes (curves) you see above. The blue line: orange/green, i.e. change in the number of hospitalised COVID-19 patients per change in active cases (with 7-day averages). Red line: blue/orange [(on ventilator, 7-day average) / in hospital (7-day average)]. Wherever the ratios are over 100%, the numerator is larger than the denominator, i.e. the rate at which they discharge Covid patients from hospitals (including those that are reported recovered by GPs) is higher than the rate at which the number of active cases is dropping. This means that an ever smaller percentage of active cases are in hospital.

5,878 COVID-19 tests were performed on Monday, and 1.2% of them came back positive (117 new cases).

Given that very few new cases are diagnosed, one possible explanation to the relatively high number of tests is that negative COVID-19 tests are required for those that require health care services. A lot of private health care service facilities have already been engaged in this kind of testing, and this may be the general practice in public health care too, so that unnecessary coronavirus infections in normal hospital wards can be avoided. Also, as people have started to travel abroad, they also may have themselves tested to meet entry requirements. Also, patients can be tested several times before surgery.

Here are a few more charts on test positivity with various averages. Click to enlarge.

Up to Monday night, close to 5.3 million Hungarians have received their first dose (+ cc. 17,000) of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4 million got their second jab (+ cc 32,500).

The following chart includes the percentage of Hungary's population that received their first and second doses, as well as a 14-day average of these figures. Why 14 days? Because you'll have some degree of protection within 14 to 21 days after the first jab, and full protection 7-10 days after the second one. Hence, the lines give you a better idea of the actual 'immunity' of those that have been inoculated. More accurate figures can be achieved by taking into consideration the efficacy of the different vaccines administered, though.

The chart on the left depicts the same as the one above but only for the past month (6 May - 6 June). The areas show the 14-day averages and the lines the normal percentage of the population vaccinated with the 1st and 2nd doses.

The right-hand chart is a snapshot of the vaccination coverage as of 6 June, i.e. the share of the population that can be considered [partly or fully] protected after their respective first and second jabs.