Economy 25 October 2021, 1:03pm

COVID-19: Pandemic picking up pace in Hungary

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Hungarian authorities diagnosed 6,688 people with COVID-19 and 75 people died of coronavirus-related diseases over the past three days. As of Sunday evening, 1,588 people with SARS-CoV-2 were treated in hospital, wit 191 of them on ventilator.

The 7-day rolling average of daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases is already higher than a year ago, but fortunately the 7-day rolling average of coronavirus-related fatalities is not as deadly (yet) in this 'wave'.

The 3-day average test positivity rate reached 12.55%, with 6,688 new cases, 1,588 people in hospital, including 191 on ventilator, which compare with a 13.14% percent positive, 7,035 new cases, 2,449 people in hospital, with 221 of them on ventilator a year ago.

Let's compare the current situation to the one we were in a year ago. There are about 35% fewer Covid patients in hospital but only some 14% fewer on ventilator, which indicates that those that need medical help are generally in a more severe condition. This also has to do with testing practices. Underdetection is massive. Given that there were no vaccines a year ago (about 60% of the population are inoculated now, but this coverage is unlikey to go much higher) the charts below bode ill for the future.

The government relies solely on vaccination, whereas international example show that the best defence is a mixture of vaccination and restriction measures (curfew, closure of services, mask-wearing, use of vaccination certificates, etc.).

The rising number of cases, fatalities and the more severe condition of hospitalised patients have not yet sounded the alarm in the government. It keeps saying that anti-pandemic restrictions will be implemented if the situation warrants it, but does not plan to reinstate such a blatantly simple yet effective risk-mitigating restriction as mandatory mask-wearing indoors (e.g. stores, public transport, cinema, theatre).

The charts below show the absolute number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals and on ventilators The left-hand chart depicts a longer period (15 June - 24 Oct), while the right-hand one shows changes over a shorter period (25 July - 24 Oct). 25 July was chosen as the starting point for it was when Covid hospitalisations hit their lowest. Looking back, we are already at late May levels, and the situation has been worsening sharply.

What the declining ratios on the following charts mean is that hospitals are currently being transformed into Covid centres. The 3-day average ratio of hospitalised Covid patients to the number of active cases is down to 6.4-6.5% from over 7% it was for two weeks (29 Sept - 12 Oct). The 3-day average On ventilator / In hospital ratio has retreated to 12.4% from over 15% in early Oct.

On chart below the 0% line is important. When the curves are under 0% there’s a decline, when they go over 0% it’s an increase. The changes show that the situation in terms of hospitalisations started to worsen after 20 August.

More importantly, when a value is north of 0% but the curve descends, it means an increase at a slowing rate, rather than a decrease. If the curve is above 0% and ascending, it is an increase at an accelerating rate. When we are under 0% and the curve goes lower, it translates into an accelerating decrease, and when it goes up it marks a decelerating decrease.

When the Case Fatality Rate (CFR, shown on a reversed scale below) drops the pandemic starts to gather momentum, because CFR = deaths / registered cases. There is an increasing number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases but the number of Covid fatalities is just starting to catch up. Whatever looks like a drop on the chart, is actually an increase in reality.

The pandemic is clearly taking off, as attested not only by a sharper rise in the accumulated number of new COVID-19 cases (39,000 vs. 54,000 a year ago), but also by the constantly rising number of accumulated days spent in hospital and on ventilator. Even with fewer cases more people ended up in ICUs between 28 Aug and 24 Oct this year than a year earlier.

THE ACCUMULATED NUMBER OF CASES IN THE PERIOD UNDER REVIEW, AS WELL AS THE ACCUMULATED NUMBER OF DAYS SPENT IN HOSPITAL ARE ABOUT 33% LOWER NOW THAN A YEAR AGO, WHEREAS THE ACCUMULATED NUMBER OF DAYS SPENT ON VENTILATOR IS 8% HIGHER.

A month ago, the number of days spent in hospital was about 6.5% lower than a year earlier, whereas the number of days spent in ICUs was 82% higher.

As remarked above, the current 'wave' is not as deadly the one a year ago, at least in the period under review, but fatalities are just 'catching up' with hospitalisations, and the ventilation situation does not bode well for the future.

By 26 September, the number of Covid deaths accumulated since 28 August was the same (88) this year and a year earlier. By 24 October, the number of Covid fatalities is 'only' 63% of the base period's print.

In terms of Covid deaths per the accumulated number of days spent in hospital (l-h scale), the situation is almost as bad as a year ago (1.64% currently vs. 1.76% a year ago), but in terms of fatalities per the accumulated number of days spent in ICUs (r-h scale) we are still much better off than a year ago.

As regards vaccinations, those that have already received their two jabs (or one if they got Johnson & Johnson's single-dose COVID-19 vaccine) increasingly think they do need a third shot. Those that have not received any jab, continue to think they can sit this one out. We'll see. They shouldn't bet on it, though.